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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Iran conflict drove oil up 77% and accelerated rotation from growth to value stocks. S&P 500 fell 4.3% while energy surged 37%."
The first quarter of 2026 was dominated by Operation Epic Fury, the joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran launched February 28, which effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and drove WTI crude oil up 77% for the quarter. This geopolitical shock accelerated an already underway rotation from expensive growth stocks to value stocks, with value outperforming growth in all three months. The S&P 500 declined 4.3% while energy stocks surged over 37%, led by ExxonMobil's 42% gain, while technology stocks like Microsoft fell 23%. The conflict pushed inflation to 3.3% and forced the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with market expectations shifting from multiple rate cuts to just one for the year. Despite the uncertainty, Biondo views the rotation toward value as healthy and overdue, noting that corporate earnings remain solid and the inflation challenge is concentrated in energy rather than wages. The firm made portfolio adjustments during the quarter, with growth strategies underperforming while dividend strategies held up well.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Iran conflict drove oil up 77% and accelerated rotation from growth to value stocks. S&P 500 fell 4.3% while energy surged 37%. Fed held rates steady as inflation hit 3.3%. Biondo ...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains high conviction: Iran conflict drove oil up 77% and accelerated rotation from growth to value stocks. S&P 500 fell 4.3% while energy surged 37%. Fed held rates steady as inflation hit 3.3%. Biondo ...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is very low conviction: Iran conflict drove oil up 77% and accelerated rotation from growth to value stocks. S&P 500 fell 4.3% while energy surged 37%. Fed held rates steady as inflation hit 3.3%. Biondo ...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Iran conflict drove oil up 77% and accelerated rotation from growth to value stocks. S&P 500 fell 4.3% while energy surged 37%. Fed held rates steady as inflation hit 3.3%. Biondo ...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Iran conflict drove oil up 77% and accelerated rotation from growth to value stocks. S&P 500 fell 4.3% while energy surged 37%. Fed held rates steady as inflation hit 3.3%. Biondo ...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates very low conviction language: Iran conflict drove oil up 77% and accelerated rotation from growth to value stocks. S&P 500 fell 4.3% while energy surged 37%. Fed held rates steady as inflation hit 3.3%. Biondo ...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Iran conflict drove oil up 77% and accelerated rotation from growth to value stocks. S&P 500 fell 4.3% while energy surged 37%. Fed held rates steady as inflation hit 3.3%. Biondo ...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates moderate conviction actionable entry points. Iran conflict drove oil up 77% and accelerated rotation from growth to value stocks. S&P 500 fell 4.3% while energy surged 37%. Fed held rates steady as inflation hit 3.3%. Biondo ...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a moderate conviction orientation. Iran conflict drove oil up 77% and accelerated rotation from growth to value stocks. S&P 500 fell 4.3% while energy surged 37%. Fed held rates steady as inflation hit 3.3%. Biondo ...
