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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Claret sees current AI valuations mirroring 1999 dot-com bubble extremes while positioning defensively for normalized interest rate environment. Strategy shifts from momentum-driven equities toward credit and fixed income, where competitive yields no longer require equity multiple expansion."
Claret Asset Management navigates Q1 2026 amid geopolitical tensions from U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Strait of Hormuz blockade, while drawing historical parallels showing markets typically bottom when war uncertainty is replaced by reality. The manager identifies concerning similarities between current AI valuations and the 1999 dot-com bubble, with companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX trading at extreme revenue multiples despite admitting extended unprofitability periods. This mirrors the eyeball metric era when traditional finance rules were suspended. The end of four decades of declining interest rates creates what the manager calls a golden age for credit, as fixed income now offers yields competitive with historical equity returns. The strategy shifts toward defensive positioning, emphasizing credit allocation over momentum-driven equities that have dominated recent years. Portfolio implications include reallocating toward fixed income, fundamental bargain hunting through deep analysis, and building portfolios with structural margins of safety. The manager advocates staying invested while avoiding short-term emotional decisions, capitalizing on normalized borrowing costs where genuine operational profitability matters more than cheap debt financing.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Claret sees current AI valuations mirroring 1999 dot-com bubble extremes while positioning defensively for normalized interest rate environment. Strategy shifts from momentum-drive...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains high conviction: Claret sees current AI valuations mirroring 1999 dot-com bubble extremes while positioning defensively for normalized interest rate environment. Strategy shifts from momentum-drive...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is high conviction: Claret sees current AI valuations mirroring 1999 dot-com bubble extremes while positioning defensively for normalized interest rate environment. Strategy shifts from momentum-drive...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Claret sees current AI valuations mirroring 1999 dot-com bubble extremes while positioning defensively for normalized interest rate environment. Strategy shifts from momentum-drive...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Claret sees current AI valuations mirroring 1999 dot-com bubble extremes while positioning defensively for normalized interest rate environment. Strategy shifts from momentum-drive...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates high conviction language: Claret sees current AI valuations mirroring 1999 dot-com bubble extremes while positioning defensively for normalized interest rate environment. Strategy shifts from momentum-drive...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Claret sees current AI valuations mirroring 1999 dot-com bubble extremes while positioning defensively for normalized interest rate environment. Strategy shifts from momentum-drive...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates moderate conviction actionable entry points. Claret sees current AI valuations mirroring 1999 dot-com bubble extremes while positioning defensively for normalized interest rate environment. Strategy shifts from momentum-drive...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a moderate conviction orientation. Claret sees current AI valuations mirroring 1999 dot-com bubble extremes while positioning defensively for normalized interest rate environment. Strategy shifts from momentum-drive...
