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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Geopolitical conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil from $57 to $101 and stoking inflation fears. The SaaSpocalypse crushed software stocks 30-50% on AI disruption concerns."
Q1 2026 was defined by two major disruptions: geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and AI-driven technology sector upheaval. U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude oil to surge from $57 to $101 per barrel and pushing fuel prices to four-year highs. This energy shock drove headline inflation to 3.3% year-over-year and raised stagflation concerns. Simultaneously, the SaaSpocalypse saw software stocks plummet 30-50% on fears that AI agents will erode traditional licensing models, compressing technology valuations to market levels for the first time in nearly a decade. Despite these shocks, U.S. large-cap stocks declined only 4.3% while small-caps gained 0.9%. Credit markets remained stable, suggesting underlying fundamentals were sound. The Federal Reserve maintained rates unchanged with no cuts expected for 2026. Looking ahead, market stability depends on Strait of Hormuz reopening and whether software disruption represents repricing or extinction. The optimal strategy appears to be patience given temporary nature of disruptions.
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