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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Alpinum turned defensive amid Iran conflict oil shock and AI disruption, reducing market exposure while emphasizing capital preservation. Geopolitical tensions elevated volatility and tail risks beyond negligible levels."
Alpinum reduced market exposure in Q1 2026 as geopolitical shocks dominated markets, with Iran conflict triggering oil surge to $102 and reviving stagflation concerns. The US operation in Venezuela, Greenland tensions, and Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted global trade routes while Anthropic's autonomous AI agents accelerated technology disruption. Despite resilient US growth and European stabilization, elevated uncertainty prompted defensive positioning emphasizing capital preservation. Energy-driven inflation complicated central bank policy with Fed maintaining cautious stance near 3.5-3.75% while ECB held rates at 2.0%. Credit spreads widened materially but created selective opportunities in shorter-duration bonds and senior loans. Equity markets bifurcated with rotation from mega-cap software toward value, cyclicals, and commodities. While severe recession remains unlikely, tail risks are no longer negligible. The firm maintains flexibility to add risk assets at more attractive levels if geopolitical tensions ease and market stress intensifies, favoring active rotation over broad beta exposure.
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