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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Night Watch delivered 2.69% in volatile Q1 2026 by owning counter-cyclical businesses that benefit from uncertainty. Strong performance from Brookdale senior living, AAR aerospace maintenance, and Marex futures clearing."
Night Watch Investment Management delivered 2.69% net returns in Q1 2026 despite significant market volatility driven by AI disruption fears and the Iran war. The fund's strategy of owning counter-cyclical businesses proved effective, with strong performance from Brookdale senior living facilities, AAR Corp aerospace maintenance services, and Marex futures clearing. Brookdale benefited from demographic tailwinds as baby boomers turn 80, while AAR gained from aging aircraft fleets and growing defense contracts representing 30% of business. Marex, the largest position at 14.5%, thrives on market volatility with earnings growing 7-fold over five years. The manager sold Copa Airlines due to fuel exposure during the Iran conflict. The portfolio maintains 28 positions across global markets with 71% insider ownership and catalyst identification in most holdings. Rather than predicting geopolitical outcomes, the fund positions in companies that can withstand uncertainty while potentially benefiting from volatility and defense spending increases.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Night Watch delivered 2.69% in volatile Q1 2026 by owning counter-cyclical businesses that benefit from uncertainty. Strong performance from Brookdale senior living, AAR aerospace ...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains high conviction: Night Watch delivered 2.69% in volatile Q1 2026 by owning counter-cyclical businesses that benefit from uncertainty. Strong performance from Brookdale senior living, AAR aerospace ...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is low conviction: Night Watch delivered 2.69% in volatile Q1 2026 by owning counter-cyclical businesses that benefit from uncertainty. Strong performance from Brookdale senior living, AAR aerospace ...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Night Watch delivered 2.69% in volatile Q1 2026 by owning counter-cyclical businesses that benefit from uncertainty. Strong performance from Brookdale senior living, AAR aerospace ...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Night Watch delivered 2.69% in volatile Q1 2026 by owning counter-cyclical businesses that benefit from uncertainty. Strong performance from Brookdale senior living, AAR aerospace ...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates very low conviction language: Night Watch delivered 2.69% in volatile Q1 2026 by owning counter-cyclical businesses that benefit from uncertainty. Strong performance from Brookdale senior living, AAR aerospace ...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Night Watch delivered 2.69% in volatile Q1 2026 by owning counter-cyclical businesses that benefit from uncertainty. Strong performance from Brookdale senior living, AAR aerospace ...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates moderate conviction actionable entry points. Night Watch delivered 2.69% in volatile Q1 2026 by owning counter-cyclical businesses that benefit from uncertainty. Strong performance from Brookdale senior living, AAR aerospace ...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a moderate conviction orientation. Night Watch delivered 2.69% in volatile Q1 2026 by owning counter-cyclical businesses that benefit from uncertainty. Strong performance from Brookdale senior living, AAR aerospace ...
