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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"AI disruption hammers software stocks while private credit faces stress. Inflation re-accelerates to 3.4%."
Mountain Vista's Q1 2026 letter addresses market volatility driven by the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which caused oil prices to surge 84% and the S&P 500 to decline 4.4%. The manager emphasizes that while geopolitical tensions create near-term uncertainty, historically high market valuations of 22-23x forward P/E left markets vulnerable to negative news. Key themes include AI disruption of enterprise software companies through tools like Anthropic's Claude Code, stress in private credit markets with 20-30% software exposure, and renewed inflationary pressures with CPI reaching 3.4%. Energy was the standout performer while gold corrected despite initial geopolitical hedging demand. Despite current challenges, the manager remains highly optimistic about medium-to-long-term equity prospects, citing unprecedented innovation, automation favoring capital over labor, supply chain reshoring to the U.S., and emerging industries in AI and robotics. The outlook emphasizes maintaining equity exposure while acknowledging inevitable volatility periods requiring disciplined, long-term perspective for achieving strong real returns.
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