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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Maximum confusion defines 2026 with Iran war driving commodity inflation, private credit facing first bear market with 9.2% defaults, and AI disrupting technology valuations."
Lansing Street Advisors views 2026 as a year of maximum confusion driven by three primary factors: the Iran conflict disrupting global supply chains and freezing Fed policy, a private credit sector bear market with rising defaults and liquidity pressures, and an AI-driven technology repricing eliminating the Magnificent 7 premium. The Iran war triggered oil price increases of 35% and broader commodity inflation, while private credit faces its first real test with 9.2% default rates and withdrawal pressures on semi-liquid funds. Technology sub-sectors are in bear markets, with software down 33% as AI tools threaten SaaS business models. However, the manager emphasizes that confusion differs from catastrophe, noting that midterm election years historically produce corrections averaging 17% but generate positive returns the following year. The private credit crisis represents only 3% of total U.S. debt versus 60% for mortgages in 2008, limiting systemic risk. Despite ranking these as the top three risks for 2026, the manager maintains that volatility creates opportunities for patient investors who stay the course.
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