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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Hong Kong is structurally transforming through capital markets centrality, mainland talent influx, and economic integration. Futu exemplifies this new model - a digital financial platform scaling globally with 3.4 million funded accounts and expanding beyond brokerage into wealth management and banking."
The Longriver Partners Fund returned negative 7.8% in Q1 2026, primarily due to an oil shock from the Iran war triggering a March sell-off. Manager Graham Rhodes provides an extensive update on Hong Kong's recovery, highlighting three structural changes: the city becoming more central to China's capital markets as geopolitics limited US access, demographic renewal through mainland talent schemes, and deeper economic integration creating both opportunities and competitive pressures. Hong Kong was the world's top IPO venue in 2025 with $37 billion raised, while HKEX implements reforms to cement its position. The letter extensively analyzes Futu, a key holding representing the new digital, cross-border financial services model. Futu has scaled globally with 55% of accounts outside Hong Kong, growing from 1.5 million to 3.4 million funded accounts since 2022. Trading at 11x forward earnings, the market may underestimate Futu's evolution from cyclical broker to broader, stickier financial platform with wealth management, banking, and crypto expansion opportunities.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Hong Kong is structurally transforming through capital markets centrality, mainland talent influx, and economic integration. Futu exemplifies this new model - a digital financial p...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains low conviction: Hong Kong is structurally transforming through capital markets centrality, mainland talent influx, and economic integration. Futu exemplifies this new model - a digital financial p...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is very low conviction: Hong Kong is structurally transforming through capital markets centrality, mainland talent influx, and economic integration. Futu exemplifies this new model - a digital financial p...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Hong Kong is structurally transforming through capital markets centrality, mainland talent influx, and economic integration. Futu exemplifies this new model - a digital financial p...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Hong Kong is structurally transforming through capital markets centrality, mainland talent influx, and economic integration. Futu exemplifies this new model - a digital financial p...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates low conviction language: Hong Kong is structurally transforming through capital markets centrality, mainland talent influx, and economic integration. Futu exemplifies this new model - a digital financial p...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Hong Kong is structurally transforming through capital markets centrality, mainland talent influx, and economic integration. Futu exemplifies this new model - a digital financial p...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates moderate conviction actionable entry points. Hong Kong is structurally transforming through capital markets centrality, mainland talent influx, and economic integration. Futu exemplifies this new model - a digital financial p...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a moderate conviction orientation. Hong Kong is structurally transforming through capital markets centrality, mainland talent influx, and economic integration. Futu exemplifies this new model - a digital financial p...
