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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Q1 2026 brought geopolitical disruption via Iran conflict pushing oil above $100 and private credit growth concerns. Miller Wealth Management maintains historical perspective, noting markets typically weather such shocks through earnings growth rather than single events."
Miller Wealth Management's Q1 2026 letter addresses two key market developments: the Iran conflict's impact on energy markets and growing private credit concerns. The war disrupted over 20% of global oil flows, pushing crude above $100 and reigniting inflation fears, forcing central banks to reconsider rate cut timelines. However, the managers emphasize historical perspective, noting markets have weathered similar geopolitical shocks before and are typically driven more by earnings growth than conflicts. On private credit, they argue the rapid growth represents risk migration from banks to alternative channels rather than new systemic risk, with today's banking system better capitalized than in 2008. Three key themes will influence markets: the conflict's duration, higher-for-longer interest rates, and corporate earnings resilience. The managers view current volatility as uncomfortable but normal, maintaining conviction-based positioning while monitoring developments. They stress that markets are forward-looking and adaptive, often overreacting short-term to uncertainty before processing new information effectively.
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