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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Jeremy Deal's fund returned 47.9% in 2024 by investing in value migration beneficiaries like Spotify and Tesla. The strategy focuses on companies where technological progress disrupts mature competitors, creating opportunities in businesses that appear overvalued historically but remain undervalued prospectively."
Jeremy Deal's Survivor & Thriver Fund delivered exceptional performance in 2024, returning 47.9% net versus the S&P 500's 25% return. The fund's strategy focuses on investing where the puck is going, capturing value migration from outdated business models to new competitors with more compatible products. Key contributors included Spotify (up 148%), which demonstrated unexpected earnings power with operating income surging to $2 billion annualized, and Tesla (up 115%), benefiting from breakthroughs in Full Self Driving technology and regulatory tailwinds post-election. The portfolio also includes positions in Roku, positioned to benefit from connected TV advertising migration, and a China basket of companies trading at single-digit multiples while generating high returns on capital. Deal emphasizes that fundamental investing requires patience as markets can be slow to recognize value, but the biggest beneficiaries of value migration tend to look overvalued on a rear-view basis yet remain chronically undervalued on a forward-looking basis. The manager remains excited about 2025 prospects.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High conviction evidenced by concentrated portfolio with named, sized positions including Spotify as largest holding and Tesla as new core position. Manager provides detailed thesis for each major holding with specific catalysts and timeframes. The fund structure and long-term approach support high conviction, though some hedging language around macro uncertainty prevents a higher score.
Growth Outlook
The manager expresses cautious optimism about 2025, noting markets started the year bearish but seeing potential for scenarios where decelerating growth keeps inflation and rates in check. He acknowledges both bear and bull cases, with a slight tilt toward constructive outcomes.
Risk Appetite
The portfolio remains fully invested with concentrated positions in growth companies like Spotify and Tesla. No new purchases were made in Q4, suggesting selective deployment rather than aggressive risk-taking, but the manager maintains conviction in existing holdings.
Capital Deployment
No new purchases were made in Q4, and the manager trimmed Spotify to fund Tesla position, indicating rotation rather than net deployment. The letter suggests a monitoring stance rather than aggressive capital deployment, with emphasis on letting existing winners compound.
Forward Guidance
The manager expresses excitement about the year ahead based on business trajectories but acknowledges 2025 will have moments of fear and euphoria. The tone suggests selective monitoring rather than aggressive deployment, with emphasis on letting winners run.
Language Signal
Language is balanced between opportunity recognition and risk acknowledgment. Positive terms like 'excited,' 'great year,' and 'lifechanging results' are offset by discussions of market anxiety, bearish narratives, and the unpredictable nature of macro conditions.
Perceived Risk
Moderate risk acknowledgment with discussion of market anxiety, bearish narratives, and macro unpredictability. The manager notes specific risks around inflation, interest rates, and policy uncertainty but frames these as manageable rather than systemic threats requiring defensive positioning.
Opportunity Density
The manager sees selective opportunities, particularly in value migration beneficiaries and companies overcoming bearish narratives. While not describing a broad opportunity set, he identifies specific areas like M&A beneficiaries and undervalued growth companies, suggesting moderate opportunity density.
Time Horizon
Strong emphasis on long-term investing with references to Buffett's multi-decade approach and the importance of holding winners through volatility. The manager discusses value migration as a multi-year process and emphasizes that fundamental investing requires patience, indicating a 3-5 year investment horizon for thesis realization.
