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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"AVI Global Trust invests in companies trading at steep discounts to net asset value. March volatility widened portfolio discounts to 37.2%, creating buying opportunities."
AVI Global Trust's NAV declined 5.1% in March as the Silicon Valley Bank collapse led to broader discount widening across the portfolio. The fund's core thesis centers on investing in companies trading at significant discounts to net asset value, with the portfolio weighted average discount expanding from 33.5% to 37.2%. Key detractors included Schibsted (-130bps), which saw its discount widen to 45% despite strong underlying marketplace assets, and Apollo Global Management, which declined on banking sector concerns despite minimal direct exposure. The manager used the volatility to add to positions in Schibsted, Apollo, and Molten Ventures at attractive valuations. Apollo trades at just 10x 2023 earnings estimates with management reconfirming growth targets. Oil exposure through Aker was pressured by recession fears, though OPEC+ production cuts in April have supported prices. The manager believes current discounts are unduly wide and continues engaging with portfolio companies on value creation initiatives.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High conviction evidenced by concentrated portfolio with top 10 holdings representing 59.5% of assets, specific position sizing disclosed, and willingness to add to positions during volatility. Manager provides detailed fundamental analysis of individual holdings with clear investment rationales.
Growth Outlook
Manager acknowledges increased recession probability from yield curve inversion and credit tightening concerns, but frames market volatility as creating opportunities rather than expressing deep pessimism about markets.
Risk Appetite
Despite market volatility, manager actively added to three positions during the month (Schibsted, Apollo, Molten Ventures), demonstrating willingness to deploy capital into weakness rather than defensive positioning.
Capital Deployment
Manager added to three positions (Schibsted, Apollo, Molten Ventures) during the month, demonstrating selective deployment into weakness. No cash level changes disclosed, but active buying during volatility indicates moderate deployment activity.
Forward Guidance
Manager expects Apollo to benefit from volatility, believes oil investment thesis remains intact, and continues engaging on value creation. Selective optimism about specific holdings with measured deployment bias.
Language Signal
Language is balanced with risk acknowledgment (recession probability, credit tightening) offset by opportunity language (attractive valuations, buying opportunities, fortress-like balance sheets). Slightly more constructive than bearish overall.
Perceived Risk
Manager identifies specific systemic risks including SVB collapse, credit tightening, recession probability from yield curve inversion, and currency headwinds. Risks are named and discussed with meaningful detail rather than dismissed.
Opportunity Density
Manager views market volatility as creating attractive buying opportunities, adding to multiple positions at what they consider attractive valuations. Discount widening seen as opportunity rather than constraint on deployment.
Time Horizon
Manager demonstrates multi-year patience with holdings, continuing to engage with Schibsted stakeholders on long-term value creation and holding through short-term volatility. Apollo's 2026 targets and oil investment thesis suggest 3-5 year investment horizons.
