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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Forager International Shares Fund 2025 Q1 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

Back to Fund Profile (Forager International Shares Fund)

Primary Source Intelligence • Q1 2025 Letter Analysis

Forager International Shares Fund Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Forager International Shares Fund. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

QTD-2.96%

Annualized+12.22%

Positioning StanceConstructive

Market CapSMID Cap

GeographyUS, Europe, Asia

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"Trump's tariff chaos triggered major market selloff, but Forager's defensive positioning with reduced US exposure and elevated cash proved prescient. Fund deployed capital selectively into quality opportunities like Nutex Health while European holdings provided resilience."

Executive Summary

Forager's International Shares Fund fell 4.8% in March amid Trump-driven market turmoil, as erratic tariff policies triggered the largest global trade upheaval since World War II. The Fund's defensive positioning proved prescient, with US exposure reduced from 64.6% to 45.8% over the year and cash levels elevated above 10%. Small-cap underperformance weighed on returns given the Fund's structural tilt toward smaller companies, but European holdings provided resilience as capital rotated away from overvalued US markets. Key contributors included healthcare provider Nutex Health, which delivered transformational arbitration-related revenue, and defensive compounders like Fiserv continuing their multi-decade growth streak. The manager expects rapid US economic deterioration and is baking recessionary conditions into valuations while selectively deploying capital into opportunities created by indiscriminate selling. With two portfolios of quality businesses offering healthy long-term returns, Forager remains positioned to capitalize on volatility while maintaining downside protection through diversified geographic exposure and strong balance sheets.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

75%

CautiousHigh

High Conviction (75%)

High conviction evident in decisive portfolio positioning changes, clear economic outlook, and specific deployment strategy. Manager demonstrates strong belief in defensive positioning while maintaining confidence in selective opportunities.

Growth Outlook

18%

BearishBullish

Bearish (18%)

The manager expresses strong pessimism about US economic prospects, expecting rapid deterioration and baking recessionary conditions into valuations. However, this is partially offset by optimism about European opportunities and the rotation away from overvalued US markets.

Risk Appetite

38%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (38%)

Portfolio positioning is defensive with reduced US exposure, elevated cash levels above 10%, and focus on resilient businesses with recurring revenues. However, the manager is selectively deploying capital into opportunities, showing some risk appetite.

Capital Deployment

25%

De-riskingDeploying

De-risking (25%)

Moderate deployment activity with roughly one-sixth of International Fund cash deployed and selective additions to existing positions. Manager describes 'firing a couple of bullets' while keeping 'plenty in the chamber', indicating measured deployment.

Forward Guidance

43%

CautiousExpansionary

Neutral (43%)

While expecting US economic deterioration, the manager is actively deploying capital into attractive opportunities and maintains confidence in the portfolio's long-term prospects. The tone suggests cautious optimism about navigating the downturn.

Language Signal

35%

BearishBullish

Bearish (35%)

Language includes significant bearish terms like 'turmoil', 'recession', 'deteriorate rapidly', and 'economic sabotage', but is balanced by opportunity-focused language like 'well-prepared', 'attractive opportunities', and 'healthy long-term returns'.

Perceived Risk

80%

Low RiskElevated

Elevated Risk (80%)

High perceived risk with explicit discussion of 'largest upheaval to global trade since World War II', recession expectations, and significant market volatility. Manager acknowledges substantial systemic and economic risks.

Opportunity Density

65%

ScarceAbundant

Abundant (65%)

Manager sees selective opportunities emerging from market dislocations, particularly in Europe and among quality businesses trading at attractive valuations. Describes 'babies thrown out with bathwater' creating opportunities.

Time Horizon

80%

Short-TermLong-Term

Decade+ (80%)

Strong emphasis on long-term investing with references to 'healthy long-term returns', multi-year positioning changes, and patient capital deployment strategy. Manager focuses on fundamental business quality over short-term volatility.