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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"ASEAN-focused fund down 10.9% YTD but trading at compelling 8.9x P/E with 16% ROE. Trump tariffs create near-term headwinds but Indonesia's domestic consumption focus and Malaysia's semiconductor exposure provide insulation."
The Pangolin Asia Fund declined 1.7% in March and 10.9% year-to-date, with the portfolio now 99% invested across Indonesia (57%), Malaysia (31%), Singapore (10%), and Philippines (2%). Despite Trump tariff headwinds affecting the region, the manager views current weakness as opportunity, noting the fund trades at just 8.9x 2025 P/E with 16% ROE. The sell-off has created Ben Graham cigar butt opportunities, with many quality companies now available at seldom-seen valuations. Indonesia's domestic consumption-driven economy (54% of GDP) should remain relatively insulated from trade disruptions, while Malaysia benefits from semiconductor tariff exclusions. After years of neglect, US investor interest in ASEAN is returning, with the region trading at COVID-low valuations while offering stable growth. The manager draws parallels to previous market dislocations where patient fundamental investing was rewarded, positioning the fund to deploy significant additional capital into attractively valued businesses rather than chasing momentum plays.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
Very high conviction demonstrated through aggressive capital deployment, concentrated geographic positioning, and strong language about fundamental analysis. Manager draws on 40 years of experience and provides specific historical parallels to support investment approach.
Growth Outlook
Manager acknowledges significant near-term headwinds from tariffs and market pessimism but views current environment as creating opportunities. References ASEAN being at 'low point' in tariff wars with negotiations starting from here, and notes renewed US investor interest despite challenges.
Risk Appetite
Highly aggressive positioning with cash reduced from 3% to 0.3% and manager stating expectation to be fully invested by April. Explicitly states 'as share prices weaken, we have become more, not less, invested' and positioned to deploy another $180 million.
Capital Deployment
Extremely aggressive deployment with cash reduced from 3% to 0.3% in one month, manager personally subscribing to fund, and explicit statement about being positioned to invest another $180 million. Clear pattern of buying into weakness.
Forward Guidance
Strong bias toward continued capital deployment with manager stating 'I expect we'll be fully invested again by the end of April' and 'As they get cheaper, we get happier.' Clear intention to actively buy into weakness based on fundamental analysis.
Language Signal
Balanced mix of opportunity language ('outstanding value', 'compelling levels', 'extremely cheap') with acknowledgment of risks ('headwinds', 'crisis', 'weakness'). Net positive bias toward opportunity identification despite challenging environment.
Perceived Risk
Moderate to high risk acknowledgment with detailed discussion of tariff impacts, market pessimism, redemption pressures on EM funds, and parallels to tech crash. However, manager frames risks as creating opportunities rather than reasons for defensiveness.
Opportunity Density
High opportunity density with manager noting many companies now meeting Ben Graham criteria, larger quality companies at seldom-seen valuations, and ability to deploy significant additional capital. Describes current environment as rich with opportunities.
Time Horizon
Strong long-term orientation with emphasis on business fundamentals over quarterly results, references to companies compounding over decades, and explicit criticism of short-term momentum investing. Patient capital approach clearly articulated.
