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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Fund outperformed S&P 500 despite tariff volatility by holding companies with strong secular tailwinds. Spotify leads with streaming growth, Caesars benefits from gaming legalization, and Chinese tech trades cheaply."
The Survivor & Thriver Fund declined 2% net in Q1 2025 versus the S&P 500's 4.2% loss, navigating extreme volatility from tariff uncertainty that created 5-25% daily swings in individual positions. Manager Jeremy Deal views the 2025 Tariff Tank as creating temporary disruption while the structural earnings power of portfolio companies remains intact. Key positions include Spotify, the largest holding benefiting from the shift to podcasting with 675 million subscribers and 123% free cash flow growth, and Caesars Entertainment positioned for online gaming expansion with 65% iGaming revenue growth. The China basket of tech infrastructure stocks outperformed significantly, trading at 10%+ equity yields despite not depending on US exports. Deal acquired Redfin at $4.50 and will receive $12.50 in RKT stock from the announced acquisition. He believes tariff outcomes will be less extreme than either political side predicts, with portfolio companies positioned to benefit from flight-to-quality dynamics and potential market recovery if economic resilience exceeds current expectations.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High conviction demonstrated through concentrated positions, detailed fundamental analysis of holdings, and explicit commitment to holding through volatility. Manager provides specific price targets and earnings projections while maintaining large position sizes.
Growth Outlook
Manager acknowledges significant market volatility and expects S&P 500 earnings revisions downward, but believes the tariff impact will be less extreme than feared and sees potential for market recovery if economic resilience exceeds expectations.
Risk Appetite
Portfolio maintains concentrated positions in secular growth themes despite volatility, with manager explicitly stating intention to hold tight rather than panic sell, though acknowledging some defensive positioning through diversification.
Capital Deployment
Neutral deployment stance with focus on holding existing positions rather than aggressive buying or selling. Manager mentions next opening for capital additions but doesn't indicate significant portfolio changes or cash level adjustments.
Forward Guidance
Manager expresses confidence in portfolio positioning for potential market recovery and flight-to-quality dynamics, with specific catalysts identified in gaming legalization and housing market recovery, while maintaining existing positions.
Language Signal
Language emphasizes opportunity in current volatility with references to attractive valuations, secular tailwinds, and positioning for recovery, though balanced with acknowledgment of near-term uncertainty and risks.
Perceived Risk
Manager acknowledges significant risks from tariff uncertainty, extreme market volatility, potential earnings revisions, and geopolitical tensions, while noting historical precedent for crisis-driven market dislocations.
Opportunity Density
Manager sees selective opportunities in current volatility, particularly in undervalued Chinese tech, gaming legalization trends, and streaming adoption, while viewing market dislocation as creating attractive entry points.
Time Horizon
Long-term focus evident through multi-year holding periods, secular theme investing, and willingness to hold through short-term volatility. Manager references looking back over 1, 3, and 5 year periods and emphasizes structural earnings power.
