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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Cedar Creek Partners 2023 Q4 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

Back to Fund Profile (Cedar Creek Partners)

Primary Source Intelligence • Q4 2023 Letter Analysis

Cedar Creek Partners Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Cedar Creek Partners. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

Annualized+15.2%

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"The fund trades at 7.9x forward earnings with significant exposure to illiquid expert market securities. Key holdings include failed merger arbitrage Propel Media and undervalued ECIP banks."

Executive Summary

Cedar Creek Partners returned 20.3% net in 2023, outperforming the Russell MicroCap index but trailing major indices led by large-cap tech. The fund focuses on microcap and over-the-counter stocks, with 35% exposure to expert market securities that face trading restrictions. Portfolio holdings trade at attractive valuations of 7.9x forward earnings and 1.7x book value. Key positions include Propel Media, where a failed IQVIA acquisition created opportunity at 1/12th the deal price, and ECIP recipient banks Citizens Bancshares and United Bancorporation of Alabama trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value. Manager Tim Eriksen serves as CEO of portfolio company Solitron Devices and Chairman of PharmChem, providing direct influence over value creation. The fund increased cash from 5% to 7% while exiting two positions. Despite some disappointments like PD-Rx Pharmaceuticals losing a key contract, the manager remains optimistic about the opportunity set and sees room for additional capital deployment in undervalued securities.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

78%

CautiousHigh

High Conviction (78%)

High conviction evidenced by concentrated portfolio with detailed position sizing (13.5% in Propel Media, 9% in PD-Rx, 33% ownership in PharmChem). Manager provides specific price targets, cost basis, and return expectations. Direct involvement as CEO/Chairman in portfolio companies demonstrates strong conviction. Clear thesis articulation for each major holding with specific catalysts and valuation metrics.

Growth Outlook

25%

BearishBullish

Bearish (25%)

Manager acknowledges major indices had phenomenal performance but focuses on his own opportunity set. Describes having more attractive ideas than capital and room for new investors, suggesting constructive but measured optimism about markets.

Risk Appetite

15%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (15%)

Cash increased from 5% to 7% and manager exited two positions during the quarter. Portfolio remains concentrated in illiquid expert market securities, showing selective risk appetite but some defensive positioning through cash increase.

Capital Deployment

43%

De-riskingDeploying

Net Neutral (43%)

Cash levels increased from 5% to 7% during the quarter, representing a 2 percentage point increase. Manager also exited two positions (Unit Corp and Harbor Diversified). While some new purchases were made (additional Solitron shares), the net effect was slight de-risking through higher cash levels.

Forward Guidance

35%

CautiousExpansionary

Cautious (35%)

Manager explicitly states having more attractive ideas than capital and encourages existing partners to increase investments and new members to join. This suggests active deployment bias and confidence in finding opportunities.

Language Signal

20%

BearishBullish

Bearish (20%)

Language includes attractive prices, incredibly attractive prices, meaningful potential upside, and comfortable holding positions. Some negative language around disappointing results and poor management treatment of shareholders, but net positive directional language.

Perceived Risk

45%

Low RiskElevated

Moderate Risk (45%)

Manager acknowledges specific risks including expert market liquidity constraints, SEC Rule 15c2-11 restrictions, and litigation uncertainties. Discusses disappointments like PD-Rx contract loss and Pacific Coast Oil Trust delays. Risk discussion is moderate and balanced rather than alarming.

Opportunity Density

75%

ScarceAbundant

Abundant (75%)

Manager explicitly states having more attractive ideas than capital and sees plenty of room for additional investments. Describes fund holdings at incredibly attractive prices and identifies specific opportunities across multiple sectors. Strong indication of abundant opportunity set.

Time Horizon

70%

Short-TermLong-Term

Decade+ (70%)

Manager demonstrates multi-year patience with positions like Pacific Coast Oil Trust taking time to work out and Propel Media Plan B value realization over time. Discusses long-term value creation through board positions and mentions 18-year fund history. Some catalyst dependency but generally patient capital approach.