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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"McIntyre delivered 38% net returns through concentrated value investing in litigation-discounted SHC and BEV-contrarian GTX. Portfolio benefits from baby with the bathwater purchases in record labels and entertainment assets during 2022 sentiment trough."
McIntyre Partnerships delivered exceptional 2023 performance with 38% net returns versus 15% for Russell 2000 Value, driven by concentrated positions in event-driven and contrarian value opportunities. The fund's success stemmed from 2022 portfolio rotation into baby with the bathwater investments in high-quality businesses trading down on sentiment rather than fundamentals. Key contributors included SHC following litigation settlement, record labels UMG and WMG, GTX benefiting from BEV slowdown, and MSGE/SPHR spin catalyst. SHC remains the largest position despite 100% January surge, with manager believing multiple normalization represents significant upside as litigation fears fade and destocking resolves. GTX offers asymmetric risk-reward as BEV growth deceleration benefits ICE and hybrid powertrains comprising 60% of EBITDA. Portfolio maintains 80% concentration in top five positions with 102% long, 6% short exposure. Manager expects current headwinds at core holdings to abate while continuing selective deployment in quality businesses at attractive valuations.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
Extremely high conviction evidenced by 80% concentration in top five positions, with SHC as largest holding despite 100% gain. Manager provides specific price targets for SHC ($37 vs $15) and GTX ($36 vs $9) with detailed fundamental analysis. Clear position sizing language and willingness to maintain concentrated exposure through volatility demonstrates strong conviction.
Growth Outlook
Manager expresses cautious optimism about current holdings but acknowledges market recovery has already occurred. Describes sitting tight and looking for new ideas rather than aggressive deployment, suggesting measured positive outlook without strong bullish conviction about broader markets.
Risk Appetite
Portfolio maintains high concentration at 102% long, 6% short with 80% in top five positions, indicating continued risk appetite. However, manager reduced some positions after appreciation and exited housing basket, showing selective risk management rather than maximum aggression.
Capital Deployment
Manager describes 2023 as not particularly active in terms of trading, with some position reductions after appreciation (SHC cut by half, SPHR substantially reduced, housing basket exited). Small new investments were made during H2 selloff but couldn't build significant positions. Net slight capital harvesting rather than deployment.
Forward Guidance
Manager explicitly states not in a particular rush to rotate capital and is sitting tight while looking for new ideas. This indicates a patient, wait-and-see approach rather than active deployment bias, suggesting neutral to slightly positive forward guidance.
Language Signal
Language includes positive terms like attractive, high-quality, compelling, and significant upside potential, but balanced with risk acknowledgments and cautious positioning. Net positive directional language but not overwhelmingly bullish.
Perceived Risk
Manager acknowledges specific risks including BEV reacceleration for GTX, GLP-1 impact on medical devices, and refinancing concerns for SPHR. However, risks are discussed as manageable and addressable rather than systemic threats. Moderate risk awareness without alarm.
Opportunity Density
Manager describes difficulty building significant positions in new investments during H2 selloff as shares ran with market recovery. States continuing to look for new ideas and seeing if anything interesting shakes free, suggesting limited current opportunity set requiring patience and selectivity.
Time Horizon
Manager demonstrates multi-year investment horizon with detailed 2026-2027 projections for SHC and GTX. Describes not being in a rush to rotate capital and holding through volatility. Three-year risk-reward framework for GTX and expectation that SHC headwinds will abate over next year or two indicates patient, long-term approach.
