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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Ashva Capital returned 16.18% in 2023 betting against recession fears and on housing shortages. Manager correctly called the Fed's soft landing while investing in structural housing demand from millennials facing decades of supply constraints."
Ashva Capital delivered 16.18% net returns in 2023 while correctly predicting no recession would materialize. Manager Ankur Shah believes the Federal Reserve is achieving the rare soft landing, creating a Goldilocks economy reminiscent of the late 1990s. The fund's core thesis centers on structural housing shortages stemming from over a decade of insufficient construction following the 2008 crisis. With millennials reaching home ownership age, this supply-demand imbalance could persist for decades, supporting investments in homebuilders NVR and Builders FirstSource. While the S&P 500's 24.2% gain in 2023 was attributed to the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, Shah notes the top performers included non-tech names like Royal Caribbean and Builders FirstSource. Looking ahead, he expects the bull market to broaden beyond technology, though he acknowledges parallels to the late 1990s period that ultimately led to the dotcom bubble. The manager's contrarian stance against recession predictions proved prescient.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
Manager demonstrates moderate-high conviction through specific named positions (BLDR, NVR) with clear thesis explanations, successful contrarian calls on recession, and detailed housing shortage analysis. However, the acknowledgment of suboptimal timing on META and desire for more aggressive positioning suggests some hedging.
Growth Outlook
Manager is clearly bullish on markets, referencing the Fed achieving a soft landing, comparing current environment to the late 90s Goldilocks economy, and stating there's a high likelihood the bull market will charge ahead and widen out beyond tech.
Risk Appetite
Manager acknowledges he could have been more aggressive in 2023 and mentions selling META earlier than optimal, suggesting moderate risk appetite rather than maximum deployment.
Capital Deployment
Manager explicitly states he could have been more aggressive in 2023 and sold META earlier than optimal, suggesting he was not fully deployed. No specific cash level changes mentioned, but tone suggests moderate deployment rather than aggressive risk-taking.
Forward Guidance
Manager expects the bull market to continue and broaden, with sentiment described as 'party like it's 1999,' indicating a bias toward continued deployment though not aggressively urgent.
Language Signal
Language is predominantly bullish with terms like 'soft landing,' 'Goldilocks economy,' 'bull market charges ahead,' though tempered by references to the dotcom bubble risk.
Perceived Risk
Manager acknowledges the late 90s parallel that ultimately led to the dotcom bubble, showing awareness of potential risks, but overall risk discussion is limited and not central to the letter's thesis.
Opportunity Density
Manager sees good opportunities in housing sector with structural decades-long shortage, expects bull market to broaden beyond tech, and maintains optimistic outlook on multiple sectors, suggesting a relatively rich opportunity set.
Time Horizon
Manager explicitly discusses decades-long housing shortage affecting millennials and references structural consequences lasting over a decade from 2008, indicating a multi-year to decade-plus investment horizon for core thesis.
