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Fund Returns
Annualized+9.67%
Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"Bronte's long/short fund struggled in Q3 as markets hit new highs, with key longs like Berkshire, Regeneron, and Visa underperforming while short book faced expected headwinds. Major short losses in Summit Therapeutics and Karuna highlighted biotech misjudgments."
Executive Summary
Bronte Capital's Amalthea Fund posted a challenging Q3 2024, declining 3.72% versus MSCI ACWI's 2.54% gain as markets made new highs. The fund's 700-position short book performed as expected during the rally, but key long positions failed to participate meaningfully. Berkshire Hathaway fell mid-single digits while Regeneron dropped double digits on patent litigation concerns. Visa and Google declined due to Justice Department antitrust actions. The fund's largest short loss came from Summit Therapeutics, which surged 10-fold on positive cancer drug trial results. A previous Karuna Therapeutics short also proved costly after FDA approval and Bristol-Myers Squibb's $14 billion acquisition. The manager trimmed positions due to insufficient upside protection and is exploring enhanced hedging strategies. New investments include Capital One Financial, positioned to benefit from the transformative Discover acquisition that creates a payments network competitor to Visa. The fund maintains its long-term focus on dominant businesses while acknowledging current market conditions favor different strategies.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Signal Matrix
Market Conviction
72%
CautiousHigh
High Conviction (72%)
Fund demonstrates high conviction through concentrated positions in named holdings like Regeneron (large position), specific sizing decisions (Capital One at 3% vs usual 6-8%), and detailed fundamental analysis of individual companies, though diversified short book and hedging concerns prevent maximum score.
Growth Outlook
38%
BearishBullish
Neutral (38%)
Manager acknowledges markets are high and finding quality longs is difficult, expressing caution about current valuations while noting abundant but poorly-timed short opportunities.
Risk Appetite
30%
DefensiveAggressive
Defensive (30%)
Fund actively trimmed book size due to lack of upside protection and is considering further reductions until better hedging can be implemented, indicating defensive positioning.
Capital Deployment
35%
De-riskingDeploying
Net Neutral (35%)
Fund explicitly trimmed book size due to lack of upside protection and is considering further reductions, indicating net capital withdrawal rather than deployment.
Forward Guidance
38%
CautiousExpansionary
Neutral (38%)
Manager explicitly states intent to shrink book and wait for better hedging techniques, showing reluctance to deploy capital aggressively in current environment.
Language Signal
43%
BearishBullish
Balanced (43%)
Language includes risk-focused terms like 'challenging,' 'difficult,' and 'awful' for short book, balanced against confidence in long-term positioning and specific opportunities.
Perceived Risk
65%
Low RiskElevated
Elevated Risk (65%)
Manager identifies multiple specific risks including short book mismatches, antitrust pressures on major holdings, and challenging market environment for their strategy, with detailed discussion of portfolio vulnerabilities.
Opportunity Density
35%
ScarceAbundant
Selective (35%)
Manager explicitly states 'finding longs is difficult' in current high market environment, though notes shorts remain abundant, indicating selective and constrained opportunity set.
Time Horizon
75%
Short-TermLong-Term
Decade+ (75%)
Fund demonstrates multi-year investment horizon through holdings like Regeneron since 2021, Capital One positioned for 'almost a decade of earnings growth,' and willingness to hold through short-term volatility while developing hedging strategies over 'next few years.'