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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Alpinum navigates elevated rate environment with cautious positioning favoring credit over equities. Fed reaches 22-year rate highs while US economy shows resilience despite European weakness and Chinese deflation."
Alpinum Investment Management maintains a cautious stance amid a muddling through economic environment characterized by elevated interest rates and persistent inflation pressures. The Federal Reserve raised rates to a 22-year high of 5.25-5.50%, while the ECB implemented its 10th consecutive hike to 4.0%. The US economy shows resilience with 2.4% annualized real GDP growth, though Europe faces economic downturn and Germany enters recessionary territory. China grapples with deflationary pressures including negative CPI and struggling real estate sector. The firm's neutral equity positioning and credit overweight strategy has proven successful. With real rates exceeding 2% and HY bonds yielding 8-9%, credit investments offer attractive risk-adjusted returns compared to equities. Key risks include Chinese property market fragility and potential US Treasury rates approaching 5%. The outlook suggests continued monetary tightening approaching peak levels, with rate cuts not expected until second half of 2024. Portfolio strategy emphasizes selective credit exposure, particularly loans and non-cyclical short-term high yield bonds, while maintaining defensive equity positioning.
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