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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Upslope Capital Management 2023 Q3 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

Back to Fund Profile (Upslope Capital Management)

Primary Source Intelligence • Q3 2023 Letter Analysis

Upslope Capital Management Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Upslope Capital Management. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

QTD-50%

YTD-3%

Annualized+8.3%

Positioning StanceConstructive

Market CapMid Cap

GeographyUS, Global

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"Upslope protected capital in Q3 with shorts offsetting long losses as rate fears hit markets. The fund sees exceptional opportunities from crude market reactions to GLP-1 and AI themes."

Executive Summary

Upslope Capital Management delivered a -0.5% return in Q3 2023, with shorts offsetting nearly all losses from longs as higher-for-longer rate expectations impacted markets. The fund maintains a 57% average net long exposure with 149% gross exposure, reflecting an unusually high number of perceived opportunities. Manager George Livadas believes the macro picture remains hazy but expects rates cannot stay elevated much longer without something breaking in banks, housing, or private credit. The micro environment is exciting due to market focus on GLP-1 drugs and AI creating crude winner/loser buckets. Geopolitical risk is at decade highs but markets remain complacent. The fund added Ball Corp, anticipating its aerospace divestiture will provide a catalyst for stabilization. Upslope's defensive approach of being long quality businesses and short garbage is well-positioned as many profitable, defensive companies have de-rated sharply precisely when rates may be topping and recession risks should return to focus.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

68%

CautiousHigh

Moderate (68%)

The manager demonstrates moderate-high conviction through concentrated positioning in 10+ named holdings with detailed thesis explanations, specific catalyst identification (Ball aerospace divestiture), and willingness to be fully invested despite macro uncertainty. The detailed portfolio construction discussion and specific position sizing language (starter positions in 1-5% range) shows clear conviction in individual names, though the diversified approach and acknowledgment of low confidence macro views prevents a higher score.

Growth Outlook

38%

BearishBullish

Neutral (38%)

The manager expresses caution about elevated rates and expects something to break, believes recession was postponed not cancelled, and notes geopolitical risks are at decade highs. However, he also sees the setup as quite good for his strategy and is optimistic about opportunities, creating a mildly negative but not deeply pessimistic outlook.

Risk Appetite

25%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (25%)

The fund was fully invested long and short at quarter-end with 149% gross exposure and 57% net long, reflecting high perceived opportunities. The manager is actively deploying capital into new positions like Ball Corp and multiple starter positions, showing a selective risk-on tilt despite macro concerns.

Capital Deployment

35%

De-riskingDeploying

Net Neutral (35%)

The fund added Ball Corp and several starter positions during the quarter, was fully invested long and short at quarter-end, and the manager describes being overwhelmed with idea generation opportunities. However, no specific cash level changes are mentioned, and the activity appears to be selective rotation and modest new deployment rather than aggressive capital deployment.

Forward Guidance

10%

CautiousExpansionary

Cautious (10%)

The manager is selectively adding positions and testing expanded starter strategies, showing mild deployment bias. However, he acknowledges low confidence in his macro views and is being selective rather than aggressively deploying, resulting in a cautiously positive action bias.

Language Signal

45%

BearishBullish

Balanced (45%)

The letter contains balanced directional language with risk terms like 'perilously high rates,' 'something will break,' and 'genuine evil' balanced against opportunity language like 'overwhelmed in a good way,' 'optimal setup,' and 'quite good.' The slight negative tilt reflects the emphasis on macro risks and defensive positioning.

Perceived Risk

72%

Low RiskElevated

Elevated Risk (72%)

The manager identifies multiple significant risks including perilously high rates that could break banks/housing/private credit, geopolitical risk at decade highs with genuine evil requiring urgent action, and market complacency toward saber-rattling. These are named, specific systemic threats discussed in detail with meaningful concern expressed about their potential impact.

Opportunity Density

75%

ScarceAbundant

Abundant (75%)

The manager describes being 'overwhelmed (in a good way)' on the idea generation front due to crude market reactions to GLP-1 and AI themes. The fund was fully invested with an unusually high number of perceived opportunities, added multiple new positions, and sees the setup as quite good for their defensive approach with many quality businesses having de-rated sharply.

Time Horizon

65%

Short-TermLong-Term

Multi-Year (65%)

The manager demonstrates a multi-year investment horizon with willingness to hold through volatility, as evidenced by re-entering Ball Corp after previously exiting too early, expecting the aerospace divestiture catalyst to play out over 1H 2024, and describing positions as suitable for 'moderately patient investors.' The focus on defensive businesses and cycle-through thinking suggests a 2-3 year thesis timeframe.