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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Curreen Capital 2023 Q3 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

Back to Fund Profile (Curreen Capital)

Primary Source Intelligence • Q3 2023 Letter Analysis

Curreen Capital Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Curreen Capital. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

Annualized+11%

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"Curreen Capital maintains 40% cash while selectively buying ugly ducklings - quality businesses temporarily out of favor. Manager Ryther requires five-to-one upside ratios and has raised investment standards due to inverted yield curve concerns."

Executive Summary

Curreen Capital declined 0.95% in Q3 2023, ending the quarter with 40% cash as manager Christian Ryther maintains a cautious stance following yield curve inversion in August 2022. The fund added three new positions during the quarter: Advance Auto Parts (2% position at $55.04), Link Administration (3% at A$1.42), and increased Nilorn holdings (2% at SEK 54.4). Ryther describes these as ugly ducklings - high quality businesses temporarily out of favor. His investment approach focuses on buying good businesses at meaningful discounts to downside valuation, typically requiring five-to-one upside to downside ratios. The inverted yield curve has made him more selective, raising the bar for new investments and making him wary of fast-growing companies. The strategy involves buying small initial positions when businesses trade at discounts to downside valuation, then adding more if prices decline further. Current portfolio includes positions in Advantage Solutions, Credit Acceptance, Frontdoor, GetBusy, and Nilorn, all described as trading at attractive upside-to-downside ratios.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

72%

CautiousHigh

High Conviction (72%)

Manager demonstrates high conviction through concentrated portfolio with named positions and specific entry prices. Clear investment framework with explicit upside-to-downside ratios and systematic approach to position sizing. Detailed analysis of individual holdings shows strong conviction in selected investments.

Growth Outlook

25%

BearishBullish

Bearish (25%)

Manager expresses clear caution about market conditions, citing inverted yield curve since August 2022 as reason for defensive positioning. Describes being leery of fast growers and finding fewer attractive opportunities, indicating a cautious market outlook.

Risk Appetite

38%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (38%)

Portfolio holds 40% cash, indicating defensive positioning. Manager has raised the bar for investments and requires higher upside-to-downside ratios. However, still selectively adding positions when opportunities arise, showing some risk appetite remains.

Capital Deployment

30%

De-riskingDeploying

De-risking (30%)

Fund holds 40% cash, indicating significant de-risking from typical equity allocation. While some new positions were added during the quarter, the high cash level and emphasis on patience suggests net defensive positioning and reduced capital deployment.

Forward Guidance

38%

CautiousExpansionary

Neutral (38%)

Manager plans to continue sitting patiently on cash while methodically deploying small amounts. Language suggests waiting for better opportunities rather than aggressive deployment, indicating cautious forward guidance.

Language Signal

38%

BearishBullish

Balanced (38%)

Language includes cautious terms like 'very cautious,' 'leery,' 'raising the bar,' and 'patiently sitting on cash.' While opportunities are described as 'excellent,' the overall tone emphasizes selectivity and patience rather than bullish enthusiasm.

Perceived Risk

65%

Low RiskElevated

Elevated Risk (65%)

Manager explicitly cites inverted yield curve as reason for caution and has raised investment standards accordingly. Expresses concern about fast growers not holding up and describes finding fewer attractive opportunities, indicating elevated risk perception.

Opportunity Density

25%

ScarceAbundant

Scarce (25%)

Manager describes opportunities to buy good businesses at meaningful discounts as 'relatively rare' and notes finding 'fewer flowers' in the current environment. High cash position and selective approach indicate sparse opportunity set.

Time Horizon

75%

Short-TermLong-Term

Decade+ (75%)

Manager emphasizes patience and describes sitting on cash while waiting for opportunities. Strategy involves buying and holding quality businesses through volatility, with no urgency expressed. Language suggests multi-year investment horizon for thesis realization.