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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Ross & Van Compernolle 2023 Q3 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

Back to Fund Profile (Ross & Van Compernolle)

Primary Source Intelligence • Q3 2023 Letter Analysis

Ross & Van Compernolle Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Ross & Van Compernolle. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

QTD+9.3%

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"Asian energy fund capitalizing on oil and gas sector resurgence after decade of underinvestment. Supply constraints from 80% sector consolidation creating pricing power for service providers."

Executive Summary

The RVC Emerging Asia Fund returned 9.3% in Q3 2023, outperforming the MSCI ASEAN's -2.4% decline, driven primarily by oil and gas sector exposure. The fund's core thesis centers on the oil and gas sector resurgence after a decade of underinvestment, with supply constraints from 80% sector consolidation since 2014 creating pricing power for service providers. Key holdings like MEDC gained 70% in the quarter as daily jack-up rig rates increased 25% from 2022 lows. The manager is increasing oil and gas allocation to nearly 20% by year-end. Vietnam exposure was reduced from 30% to 10% due to economic headwinds including anti-corruption campaign impacts, real estate crisis causing NPLs, manufacturing slowdown, and energy vulnerability from 43% hydroelectric dependence. The fund maintains conviction in Vietnamese port operator Gemadept, benefiting from FDI flows and potential fee increases. New position CSE Global offers attractive valuations with projected 300% profit growth and strong order book expansion to SGD 900 million.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

72%

CautiousHigh

High Conviction (72%)

High conviction demonstrated through concentrated sector allocation (targeting 20% in oil and gas), specific position sizing (5% stake in VEB, 4% in CSE), and willingness to significantly reduce Vietnam exposure from 30% to 10%. Manager names specific holdings with detailed thesis and sizing, showing strong conviction in selected positions despite diversified portfolio.

Growth Outlook

25%

BearishBullish

Bearish (25%)

Manager expresses selective optimism about oil and gas sector prospects through 2024 but acknowledges significant economic headwinds in Vietnam including corruption campaign impacts, real estate crisis, and energy vulnerabilities. Mixed outlook with sector-specific bullishness offset by regional concerns.

Risk Appetite

15%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (15%)

Portfolio positioning shows moderate risk appetite with concentrated sector bet on oil and gas (increasing to 20%) but defensive action in reducing Vietnam exposure from 30% to 10%. Manager taking profits on strong performers while building conviction positions.

Capital Deployment

38%

De-riskingDeploying

Net Neutral (38%)

Net capital pullback evidenced by reducing Vietnam allocation from 30% to 10% and fully exiting three positions (BCP, MAPA, VPB) while adding only one new position (CSE). Despite plans to increase oil and gas exposure, the quarter showed more harvesting than deployment activity.

Forward Guidance

30%

CautiousExpansionary

Cautious (30%)

Manager plans to incrementally strengthen oil and gas positions over coming months and expects sector to prosper well into 2024. However, cautious on Vietnam deployment until attractive valuations reappear. Selective deployment bias in favored sectors.

Language Signal

20%

BearishBullish

Bearish (20%)

Language balances opportunity identification in oil and gas (resurgence, well-positioned, prosper) with risk awareness in Vietnam (crisis, vulnerability, stifling). Constructive on specific themes but acknowledges meaningful headwinds in key geography.

Perceived Risk

68%

Low RiskElevated

Elevated Risk (68%)

Manager identifies multiple specific risks including Vietnam's anti-corruption campaign impacts on business confidence, real estate crisis causing NPLs, manufacturing slowdown from inventory overhang, and energy vulnerability from hydroelectric dependence. Detailed risk analysis with concrete examples and implications.

Opportunity Density

65%

ScarceAbundant

Abundant (65%)

Manager sees selective opportunities in oil and gas sector with plans to incrementally strengthen positions, but characterizes Vietnam as requiring patience until attractive valuations reappear. Opportunity set described as sector-specific rather than broad-based.

Time Horizon

70%

Short-TermLong-Term

Decade+ (70%)

Manager describes oil and gas projects as multi-year undertakings and expects sector to prosper well into 2024 and onwards. Vietnam positioning described as long-term with willingness to wait for attractive valuations. Multi-year thesis horizon with patience for value realization.