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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Alluvial Capital Management 2024 Q1 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

Back to Fund Profile (Alluvial Capital Management)

Primary Source Intelligence • Q1 2024 Letter Analysis

Alluvial Capital Management Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Alluvial Capital Management. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

Annualized+16%

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"Alluvial Fund outperformed in Q1 with 6.3% returns, selling P10 Inc. and adding European value plays McBride and Scandic Hotels plus Mexican growth stories."

Executive Summary

Alluvial Fund delivered 6.3% returns in Q1 2024, outperforming comparable indexes while demonstrating resilience in volatile markets. The fund sold its entire P10 Inc. position after years of disappointments and redeployed capital into new opportunities including McBride plc, a European private label detergent producer trading at 4.4x EBITDA, and Scandic Hotels, a Nordic hotel operator offering double-digit free cash flow yields. The manager initiated positions in Mexican companies Grupo Herdez and Corporativo Fragua, reflecting long-term bullishness on Mexico's demographics and reshoring trends. Existing holdings performed well, with Garrett Motion repurchasing $90 million in shares, Crawford United delivering strong industrial HVAC results, and Talen Energy announcing strategic asset sales. The fund is closing to new investors at $50 million in assets while launching a new tangible asset-focused fund later this year. Portfolio remains concentrated in undervalued small-caps with strong capital allocation and clear revaluation catalysts.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

72%

CautiousHigh

High Conviction (72%)

High conviction evidenced by concentrated portfolio with named positions and specific valuations. Manager provides detailed thesis for each holding with precise price targets (McBride worth GBp 200 vs GBp 97-99 purchase). Willing to make significant position changes like selling entire P10 stake. Clear sizing language and specific catalyst identification demonstrate strong conviction in investment decisions.

Growth Outlook

25%

BearishBullish

Bearish (25%)

Manager expresses cautious optimism, noting good Q1 performance but acknowledging recent market weakness. References 'fitful markets' and delayed rate cuts creating less sunny investor sentiment, balanced against fund's resilient performance and identification of new opportunities.

Risk Appetite

40%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (40%)

Portfolio shows selective risk-taking with new positions in McBride and Scandic Hotels while selling P10 Inc. Manager maintains concentrated exposure but demonstrates disciplined capital allocation by exiting disappointing positions and redeploying to better opportunities.

Capital Deployment

15%

De-riskingDeploying

De-risking (15%)

Net neutral deployment with rotation activity. Manager sold entire P10 position and redeployed proceeds into multiple new holdings including McBride, Scandic Hotels, and Mexican positions. Also trimmed Hammond Manufacturing during price spike. This represents capital rotation rather than net new deployment, scoring slightly positive due to active reallocation to better opportunities.

Forward Guidance

30%

CautiousExpansionary

Cautious (30%)

Manager shows measured deployment bias, actively adding new positions while closing fund to new investors. Selective about opportunities but willing to act on compelling value situations. Plans to launch new fund indicates confidence but measured approach to growth.

Language Signal

35%

BearishBullish

Bearish (35%)

Language is balanced with more opportunity-focused terms like 'attractive', 'bargain', 'excellent value' than risk language. Manager identifies multiple undervalued situations but acknowledges market challenges and volatility. Net positive but measured tone throughout.

Perceived Risk

45%

Low RiskElevated

Moderate Risk (45%)

Moderate risk acknowledgment with specific concerns about interest rate delays affecting small-caps and UK market challenges post-Brexit. Manager notes market volatility and sector-specific headwinds but doesn't express systemic alarm. Risk discussion is present but balanced with opportunity identification.

Opportunity Density

65%

ScarceAbundant

Abundant (65%)

Manager identifies selective opportunities across multiple geographies, adding four new positions in Q1. Specific mention of UK opportunities due to Brexit-related dislocations and Mexican growth prospects. While selective, manager demonstrates ability to find compelling ideas across different markets and sectors.

Time Horizon

70%

Short-TermLong-Term

Decade+ (70%)

Multi-year investment horizon evidenced by long-term bullishness on Mexico demographics and willingness to hold through volatility. Manager discusses multi-year catalysts and fundamental business improvements rather than near-term events. New fund launch with extended lockup period reinforces long-term orientation, though some holdings have nearer-term catalysts.