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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Old West Capital Management 2024 Q1 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

Back to Fund Profile (Old West Capital Management)

Primary Source Intelligence • Q1 2024 Letter Analysis

Old West Capital Management Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Old West Capital Management. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

Annualized+15.46%

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"Old West sees a generational opportunity in industrial metals driven by massive AI infrastructure spending while supply constraints create scarcity pricing. The fund holds concentrated positions in high-grade copper, tin, and silver miners trading at attractive valuations."

Executive Summary

Old West Investment Management underperformed benchmarks in Q1 2024 but sees significant opportunity ahead in industrial metals. Manager Joseph Boskovich expresses concern about elevated market valuations, with the S&P trading at 21x forward earnings and the Buffett Indicator at 189%, well above historical averages. Despite consumer stress from record credit card debt and stretched finances, the economy shows resilience. The firm's core thesis centers on a multi-year bull market in industrial metals driven by massive AI infrastructure investments, including Taiwan Semiconductor's $65 billion Phoenix facility and Microsoft's $100 billion data center project. These facilities require substantial copper, tin, and silver. Supply constraints in metals markets, particularly copper and tin, create scarcity pricing opportunities. The fund holds concentrated positions in high-grade mining companies including Alphamin Resources, Filo, NGEx, and Adriatic Metals. Boskovich believes current market concentration in mega-cap tech stocks creates an ideal environment for value-oriented stock picking in overlooked resource companies positioned to benefit from this generational opportunity.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

72%

CautiousHigh

High Conviction (72%)

High conviction score based on concentrated portfolio with named, sized holdings in specific mining companies. Manager provides detailed thesis for each position including Alphamin Resources, Filo, NGEx, and Adriatic Metals. Clear catalyst-driven approach with specific production targets and cost structures discussed. However, lack of explicit position sizing caps score below 0.75.

Growth Outlook

38%

BearishBullish

Neutral (38%)

Manager expresses clear concerns about market valuations with S&P at 21x forward earnings, Shiller P.E. at 34x, and Buffett Indicator at 189% - well above historical averages. However, he sees selective opportunities in metals and mining, preventing a more negative score.

Risk Appetite

25%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (25%)

Portfolio maintains concentrated exposure to metals and mining companies, with manager recently adding more small- and mid-cap copper producers. This shows selective risk-taking in preferred sectors despite broader market concerns.

Capital Deployment

35%

De-riskingDeploying

Net Neutral (35%)

Manager states they are recently adding more small- and mid-cap copper producers to portfolios, indicating selective deployment. However, no specific cash level changes mentioned and deployment appears limited to preferred metals sector rather than broad-based.

Forward Guidance

50%

CautiousExpansionary

Neutral (50%)

Manager explicitly states excitement about seeing ideas produce strong results for balance of year and beyond. He's actively adding copper producers and expects multi-year bull market in industrial metals, showing clear deployment bias in preferred sectors.

Language Signal

0%

BearishBullish

Bearish (0%)

Language is balanced between risk warnings about market valuations and consumer stress, and opportunity language around metals bull market and generational opportunity. Bullish language around metals investments is offset by bearish macro commentary.

Perceived Risk

75%

Low RiskElevated

Elevated Risk (75%)

Manager identifies multiple specific systemic risks including elevated market valuations, consumer debt stress, government debt burden, and stretched consumer finances. Detailed discussion of Buffett Indicator, Shiller P.E., and credit card debt levels shows high awareness of macro risks.

Opportunity Density

65%

ScarceAbundant

Abundant (65%)

Manager sees selective opportunities in metals and mining sector, describing unusual combination of strong fundamental outlook and low valuations in resource industry. However, acknowledges broader market challenges and concentration in handful of mega-cap names limits overall opportunity set.

Time Horizon

75%

Short-TermLong-Term

Decade+ (75%)

Manager describes multi-year bull market in industrial metals and discusses lead times of years required to develop new mines. References to generational opportunity and long-term supply/demand imbalances suggest 3-5 year investment horizon for core thesis.