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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Crescat Capital - Global Macro Hedge Fund. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.
"Crescat targets $20,000 gold within four years driven by M2 money supply growth, central bank accumulation at double historical pace, and fiscal dominance forcing monetary policy into debt management mode. Activist metals exploration strategy across five funds leverages this thesis through PIPE-funded discoveries in gold, silver, and copper."
Crescat Capital derives a $20,000 price target for gold based on two independent models: global M2 money supply growth versus above-ground gold stock, and a gold-to-S&P 500 ratio assuming a 50% market decline and dollar devaluation. The timeline is approximately four years, though geopolitical factors could accelerate this dramatically. Central banks have doubled their gold accumulation pace to 1,000 tonnes annually over the past four years, establishing gold as the de facto global reserve currency. The manager believes the US has entered a period of fiscal dominance where monetary policy has evolved into a debt management tool rather than an inflation-fighting mechanism. Unsustainable fiscal imbalances and rising M2 money velocity provide inflationary tailwinds. The activist metals exploration strategy remains the largest theme across five private funds, built over six years through PIPE deals creating new gold, silver, and copper discoveries. Recent pullbacks in precious metals provide opportunity for new investors. The Precious Metals Fund returned 52.0% over the trailing year despite a challenging Q2 2026, significantly outperforming benchmarks since inception.
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