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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Green Ash Partners 2026 Q2 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

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Primary Source Intelligence • Q2 2026 Letter Analysis

Green Ash Partners Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Green Ash Partners. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

SOURCE UNAVAILABLE

Fund Returns

YTD-10%

Annualized+9.3%

Positioning StanceConstructive

Market CapMid Cap

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"Core holdings SpaceX, Filtronic, and ImmunityBio trade at compelling valuations: SpaceX at 23x earnings with 87% growth, Filtronic at 12x forward earnings at factory capacity, ImmunityBio addressing $43bn+ market."

Executive Summary

GA-Courtenay Special Situations Fund declined 13.8% in July 2026, bringing year-to-date performance to -10.0%, driven by a 50-year high volatility spike in momentum factor risk that indiscriminately impacted higher-growth equities. The manager ascertained no fundamental deterioration in holdings and views the dislocation as liquidity-driven, with hedge funds and banks forced to sell due to VaR limits. Core holdings including SpaceX, Filtronic, and ImmunityBio are highlighted as increasingly attractive at current valuations. SpaceX trades at 23.1x 2028 earnings with 87% revenue growth, 43% cheaper on an EV-to-sales basis than its December 2025 private tender. Filtronic's new factory supports £200m+ revenue with a path to 12.4x P/E at capacity. ImmunityBio's Anktiva addresses a $5.8bn market expanding to $43bn+ with potential US lung cancer approval by 2028. Equity exposure was moderated to 100% of NAV as a precaution, while merger arbitrage exposure increased to 83% and contributed positively. The manager added to SpaceX and Tesla positions, emphasizing steadfastness through volatility with the long-term path to strong progress intact.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

82%

CautiousHigh

High Conviction (82%)

The fund demonstrates high conviction through concentrated positioning (23 named holdings with top 5 representing 33% of NAV), detailed fundamental analysis with specific valuation targets, and willingness to add to positions during volatility. The manager provides granular analysis of SpaceX (23.1x earnings, 87% growth, lockup dynamics), Filtronic (12.4x P/E at capacity, £200m revenue potential), and ImmunityBio ($43bn addressable market). The statement 'virtually all of my own capital is invested in the fund' reinforces personal conviction. Detailed KPI monitoring through a 'world model' and multi-page deep-dive analysis on individual holdings demonstrates high-conviction research. The score is capped below 0.90 due to the precautionary reduction in gross exposure and diversification across 23+ positions rather than extreme concentration.

Growth Outlook

15%

BearishBullish

Bearish (15%)

The manager acknowledges a highly unusual market dislocation but frames it as temporary and unrelated to fundamentals. While recognizing the 50-year high in momentum volatility, the commentary emphasizes that 'none of the price movements that have impacted this fund traced to fundamentals: no profit warnings, no new competitors, no business-specific impairments.' The outlook is cautiously constructive, viewing current conditions as creating attractive entry points rather than signaling systemic deterioration. The manager explicitly rejects market timing and maintains that 'the fund's path to strong progress remains intact.'

Risk Appetite

35%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (35%)

The fund moderated equity exposure from 113% to 100% of NAV as a precaution during the volatility, indicating some defensive action. However, this was described as 'modest overall' and focused on 'lowest conviction holdings,' while the manager simultaneously increased selected positions and added to SpaceX and Tesla. The net long position remains at 70.5% with substantial put protection. The increase in merger arbitrage exposure to 83% from 59% shows selective risk-taking in a different area. Overall positioning reflects cautious but not defensive posture, with conviction maintained in core holdings.

Capital Deployment

38%

De-riskingDeploying

Net Neutral (38%)

Net capital was pulled back modestly, with equity gross exposure reduced from 113% to 100% of NAV (approximately -13% reduction in gross exposure). However, this was partially offset by increasing merger arbitrage exposure from 59% to 83% (+24% increase). The manager describes the equity reduction as 'modest overall' and 'focusing on the fund's lowest conviction holdings,' while simultaneously adding to SpaceX and Tesla. The net effect is a slight de-risking in equities rotated into merger arbitrage, with selective additions to highest-conviction names. This represents moderate de-risking rather than aggressive capital withdrawal.

Forward Guidance

25%

CautiousExpansionary

Cautious (25%)

The manager's forward guidance emphasizes patience and conviction rather than aggressive deployment. The explicit statement 'now is the time to be steadfast through the volatility' signals a holding pattern rather than major new deployment. While positions were added to SpaceX and Tesla, the overall reduction in gross exposure and the framing around 'appropriate response as the new market dynamics were reflected on' suggests a wait-and-watch approach. The manager is not rushing to deploy but is selectively adding to highest-conviction names at attractive prices.

Language Signal

45%

BearishBullish

Balanced (45%)

The language balance leans moderately positive despite the drawdown. Bullish terms dominate the holdings discussion: 'monopolistic positioning,' 'attractive valuations,' 'heightened attractiveness in pricing,' 'increasingly de-risked,' 'best-in-class therapy,' 'robust equity value compounding.' Risk language is present but contextualized as temporary: 'highly unusual,' 'short-lived episode,' 'not a repudiation.' The manager uses confident framing around fundamentals remaining intact and the path to strong progress being clear. The ratio favors opportunity language over risk language, though not overwhelmingly.

Perceived Risk

55%

Low RiskElevated

Moderate Risk (55%)

The manager identifies and discusses specific risks in meaningful detail: the 50-year high momentum volatility spike, VaR-driven forced selling by hedge funds and banks, and the unprecedented nature of the intra-market rotation that 'pierced that armour.' SpaceX lockup expiry risks are acknowledged with detailed analysis of potential selling pressure. However, these risks are consistently reframed as temporary, liquidity-driven, and unrelated to fundamentals. The manager emphasizes 'no fundamental deterioration' and views the environment as creating opportunity rather than systemic danger. Risk discussion is substantive but not alarmed, placing this in the moderate range.

Opportunity Density

75%

ScarceAbundant

Abundant (75%)

The manager views the current environment as creating abundant opportunities, explicitly stating that holdings 'reviewed at current valuations in this factsheet are noted as to their heightened attractiveness in pricing.' Multiple holdings are described with compelling valuations: SpaceX 43% cheaper on EV/sales than December 2025, Filtronic at 12.4x forward P/E, EchoStar embedding SpaceX at negative value, ImmunityBio overlooked by the market, NovaGold at 3% of in-ground value, St Joe at 90% discount to NAV. The 'heightened merger arbitrage opportunity set' led to increased allocation. The manager frames the dislocation as creating attractive entry points across the portfolio rather than a scarcity of ideas.

Time Horizon

78%

Short-TermLong-Term

Decade+ (78%)

The manager demonstrates a multi-year investment horizon with explicit rejection of market timing: 'we do not, and should not, market-time equity exposure.' The Buffett quote emphasizing staying 100% invested reinforces long-term orientation. Analysis focuses on multi-year catalysts: Filtronic factory reaching full utilization 'within two years,' ImmunityBio lung cancer approval 'by 2028,' Starship launch cadence 'over the next two years and ultimately well beyond.' The manager emphasizes 'long-term focus' and states 'it is the longer-term outcomes that will define our premise.' However, the fund structure allows daily dealing and some catalyst dependency (lockup expiries, regulatory approvals) prevents this from scoring in the 0.85+ permanent capital range.