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Quick Take
"L&G Active Fixed Income has turned defensive as the Iran conflict drives sustained oil price spikes above $100, forcing rate repricing and creating multiple overlapping risks with AI disruption and private credit stress. The team reduced duration, raised liquidity, and cut lower-quality credit exposure while maintaining selective positions in subordinated financials and emerging markets."
Executive Summary
Legal & General's Active Fixed Income team has shifted to a more cautious stance across strategies as the Middle East conflict drives oil prices above $100 per barrel, creating inflation pressures that have forced central banks to reprice rate expectations from cuts to potential hikes in Europe and the UK. The team has reduced duration exposure, viewing it as a less effective hedge given the likelihood of positive correlation between yields and credit spreads in this environment. Credit spreads have widened 10-20% in March despite remaining tight by historical standards, while multiple risks including AI-driven disruption in software, emerging stress in private credit markets, and geopolitical uncertainty create conditions for potential non-linear market behavior. The team has increased liquidity buffers, reduced exposure to lower-quality credits, and deployed hedges including credit default swaps while maintaining selective exposure to subordinated financials, corporate hybrids, and emerging market debt where fundamentals remain robust. European banks demonstrate strong capital buffers averaging 400 basis points above comfortable levels, while EM continues to show resilient growth and current account surpluses despite regional vulnerabilities to energy prices.
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