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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"The S&P 500 rallied +15% in Q2 2026 as oil reversed from $115 to $70 following a Middle East ceasefire, while semiconductor stocks surged +88% on record AI infrastructure spending by major tech companies. Inflation peaked at +4.2% in May but is expected to ease."
Stocks staged a strong recovery in Q2 2026, with the S&P 500 gaining +15% and finishing near record highs despite a Middle East conflict and oil shock. Oil prices spiked to $115 in April before reversing to $70 by quarter-end following a ceasefire, causing inflation to peak at +4.2% year-over-year in May before expectations shifted toward easing. The Federal Reserve signaled a shift from rate cuts to potential rate hikes in response. Semiconductor stocks led the rally with an +88% gain, their strongest quarter in nearly 30 years, driven by massive AI infrastructure spending by Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Oracle projected to reach $724 billion in 2026 and $900 billion in 2027. Market breadth remained strong beyond tech, with small-cap stocks gaining +21.5% and international markets advancing alongside U.S. stocks. The manager notes three key questions for Q3: whether inflation eases, whether AI spending and stock gains can hold given high expectations, and whether market breadth continues. A diversified portfolio and long-term perspective are emphasized to navigate uncertainty.
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