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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Q2 2026 proved that crises do not necessarily mean sell signals. Despite the Strait of Hormuz closure creating a major oil shock, markets delivered positive returns driven by containable energy disruptions and robust US earnings growth of 11.5%."
Q2 2026 delivered positive portfolio returns despite one of the biggest energy shocks in recent decades from the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. The oil crisis proved containable through workarounds including increased US supply, Saudi pipeline capacity, and accelerated energy efficiency, echoing lessons from Germany's 2022 gas crisis. The dramatically improving outlook for company revenues and profits, particularly in the US where revenues are expected to grow 11.5% over the next 12 months, has been a major positive for market sentiment. AI is emerging as one of the biggest economic and societal upheavals in human history, moving faster than the electricity revolution. Anthropic revenues surged from $1 billion in December 2024 to $44 billion currently, while Nvidia is expected to show 96% revenue growth. Technology volatility is likely to spread across sectors as all companies must integrate AI or face decline. The manager expects strong profit growth, continued geopolitical crises, and higher-than-average volatility given the unprecedented range of potential outcomes for companies.
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