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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Equity markets delivered one of their strongest quarterly reversals in years, driven by exceptional earnings growth and broadening participation beyond mega-cap tech. The AI trade matured as semiconductor suppliers surged and productivity gains diffused across sectors."
After a turbulent first quarter, equity markets staged one of their strongest quarterly reversals in years, with the S&P 500 climbing sharply off March lows to close near record highs. The rally was driven by robust corporate earnings, with roughly 85% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations and growth tracking in the high twenties year-over-year. Crucially, this was an earnings-driven rally rather than multiple expansion, with valuations compressing to around 21 times forward earnings. A short-term US-Iran ceasefire caused oil prices to retreat from above $110 per barrel, though the deal remains fragile. The AI trade evolved meaningfully, with semiconductor suppliers surging on explosive demand for high-bandwidth memory while productivity gains diffused across industrials, logistics, financial services, and retail. Market breadth improved significantly, with small and mid-caps outperforming. However, meaningful headwinds remain: high interest rates pressure housing, reaccelerating inflation has pushed Fed rate cuts off the table, and lower- and middle-income consumers face increasing pressure. The second half looks constructive but leaves little margin for error.
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