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Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"Oldfield Partners delivered strong returns from semiconductor holdings purchased at depressed valuations that have since doubled or tripled. The manager warns extensively about bubble dynamics and market excess, particularly around AI enthusiasm and the SpaceX listing, using balloon metaphors to signal caution."
Executive Summary
Oldfield Partners delivered strong performance in Q2 2026 driven by semiconductor holdings that were purchased at extremely low valuations and have since appreciated by a couple of hundred percent as earnings surged. The manager emphasizes that there is no such thing as a 'value' company—only companies with different valuations at different times based on waves of enthusiasm and gloom. The firm maintains flexibility without entrenched sector views, which has proven beneficial. Despite this success, the manager issues extensive warnings about market excess, using bubble and balloon metaphors to describe current conditions. The SpaceX listing is cited as exhibiting hallmarks of a market top, with stratospheric valuations and inexperienced investors pouring in. The manager expresses concern about AI's impact on professional employment while acknowledging its benefits. Nevertheless, the outlook remains constructive for value investing, with the portfolio maintaining an average P/E of around eleven and the manager seeing plenty of upside. The notions of US dollar exorbitant privilege and US exceptionalism have been undermined by geopolitical events. The manager concludes that 'Value' is back with lots of exciting opportunities available despite overvaluation in many market corners.
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