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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Corporate resilience dominated the first half of 2026 as companies delivered earnings growth exceeding 25% and record profit margins despite geopolitical shocks from Iran conflict. The S&P 500 rose 10% year-to-date driven by fundamentals rather than valuation expansion."
The first half of 2026 showcased a contest between geopolitical disruption and economic resilience, with resilience winning decisively. Despite the outbreak of conflict with Iran driving oil prices higher and sending the S&P 500 lower in Q1, the second quarter countered strongly with the index rising 15% for the period and nearly 10% year-to-date. Corporate earnings emerged as the key driver, with S&P 500 earnings growing more than 25% year-over-year and profit margins reaching record highs of nearly 15%. Importantly, equity returns were driven by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion, with forward P/E multiples compressing from 22x to below 20x. AI-related capital spending accelerated further, with benefits broadening beyond large tech to industrial companies supporting infrastructure buildout. The labor market provided stability with low hiring and low firing dynamics. Inflation remains the primary risk, particularly energy-driven pressures from Middle East tensions. Looking forward, the manager expects a slower, uneven expansion with earnings supporting growth while geopolitics cap valuation upside. If oil prices retreat and inflation stays anchored, a better second half driven by earnings and broader participation is achievable.
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