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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Markets rallied in Q2 2026 as small caps surged 22% and leadership broadened beyond mega-cap tech. The U.S.-Iran conflict disrupted energy markets before stabilizing, while AI focus shifted from infrastructure spending to monetization concerns as hyperscaler cash flows weakened."
U.S. markets delivered strong returns in Q2 2026, with large-cap stocks up 15% and small-cap stocks surging 22%, their best quarterly performance since Q4 2020. The quarter was defined by the U.S.-Iran conflict, which disrupted energy markets and pushed oil above $110 per barrel before a June ceasefire framework stabilized conditions. AI remained a dominant theme, but investor focus shifted from infrastructure spending to monetization and returns as hyperscaler free cash flow came under pressure despite record capex levels. The U.S. consumer remained resilient, supported by larger tax refunds and improving lower-income household finances, even as inflation at 4.2% outpaced wage growth. Kevin Warsh began his tenure as Federal Reserve Chair, launching task forces to review inflation frameworks and communications, with potential shifts toward trimmed-mean measures. Market breadth improved significantly, with small caps outperforming and leadership expanding beyond mega-cap technology. The Supreme Court invalidated Trump's 2025 tariffs, triggering $165 billion in refunds that are being returned to businesses and consumers. Looking forward, the key question is whether AI spending translates into sustainable earnings growth and margin expansion across industries.
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