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Fund Returns
QTD+1.2%
YTD+6.09%
Positioning StanceCONSTRUCTIVE
GeographyUS
Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"Jemekk Hedge Fund returned +1.20% net in Q3 2026, driven by strong gains across precious metals, US technology, and energy producers, while leaning into pullback opportunities in defence and infrastructure."
Executive Summary
Jemekk Hedge Fund generated a net return of +1.20% in the third quarter of 2026, bringing year-to-date net performance to +6.09%. Fund results tracked closely alongside broader market indices, comparing to total returns of +1.62% for the S&P/TSX Composite and +2.30% for the S&P 500. Portfolio managers increased net long equity exposure into the high 70s by the end of the period, demonstrating an assertive deployment posture despite trimming index hedges at the end of the prior quarter. This left the strategy slightly exposed to late-September volatility, although disciplined hedging and resource strength preserved positive quarterly performance.
The macroeconomic environment was characterized by heightened rotational volatility triggered by a geopolitical energy shock and hawkish monetary policy. The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire shuttered the Strait of Hormuz and propelled Brent crude past US$100 per barrel, reigniting inflation concerns. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh implemented its first interest rate hike in three years, driving the US 10-year Treasury yield above 5.25%. Jemekk's core narrative themes—Canadian Defence, Domestic Infrastructure ('Build Canada'), Precious Metals, and Healthcare—faced mixed sector crosscurrents as rising yields punished rate-sensitive yield equities while lifting commodities.
Portfolio activity reflected decisive capital allocation within priority themes. High-conviction gains in US technology leaders Microsoft and Meta Platforms, alongside a profitable trade in Shopify that was fully exited, provided substantial long-side alpha. Within Precious Metals, mid-tier producers outpaced senior miners, supporting an 18% sector allocation. In Defence, the managers defended their core holding in MDA Space through a steep pullback, citing accretive M&A that expands global reach and diversifies revenue. Additionally, the fund initiated a new long position in engineering giant WSP Global, capitalizing on unwarranted AI disruption fears to purchase premium infrastructure growth at trough multiples.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Signal Matrix
74%
CautiousHigh
High Conviction (74%)
Market Conviction
Portfolio conviction is demonstrated by holding a core position in MDA Space through a sharp 28% drop, selectively deploying into the pullback, and expanding net long exposure into the high 70s. However, conviction is moderated by active use of broad index hedges, tactical full exits such as Shopify, and diversification across four distinct macro themes.
65%
BearishBullish
Bullish (65%)
Growth Outlook
Management explicitly remains constructive on equities heading into the fourth quarter, highlighting resilient US corporate earnings and attractive Canadian relative valuations. Directional optimism is tempered by the restrictive combination of benchmark bond yields above 5%, the Fed resuming monetary tightening, and high oil prices reigniting inflation.
72%
DefensiveAggressive
Aggressive (72%)
Risk Appetite
Capital positioning sits firmly in risk-tolerant territory as net long equity exposure expanded into the high 70s by the end of the quarter. While index hedges are actively maintained as an insurance mechanism, management intentionally allowed hedges to roll off earlier in the summer and continues to allocate fresh capital into cyclical resource and infrastructure names.
76%
De-riskingDeploying
Deploying (76%)
Capital Deployment
Capital deployment accelerated over the quarter as the fund increased its net long positioning into the high 70s, initiated new core equity positions in WSP Global and Toromont Industries, and selectively added to existing defence holdings during the market dip.
70%
CautiousExpansionary
Expansionary (70%)
Forward Guidance
The manager expresses an explicit action bias toward buying pullbacks in already funded defence contractors and expanding holdings in secular domestic infrastructure. The fund has committed to monitoring index hedges and selectively adding protection only if broader macro conditions deteriorate post-US midterms.
62%
BearishBullish
Balanced (62%)
Language Signal
Constructive commentary highlighting 'highest earnings growth at lowest valuation', 'multi-decade spending commitments', and 'strong contributors' is balanced by frequent mentions of 'elevated risks', 'monetary tightening', 'supply shocks', and 'volatile rotations'.
72%
Low RiskElevated
Elevated Risk (72%)
Perceived Risk
Management identifies a challenging macro backdrop driven by an energy supply disruption with Brent crude exceeding US$100, the Federal Reserve delivering an unexpected interest rate hike, 10-year yields breaching 5.25%, and narrow equity market leadership concentrated in a handful of mega-caps.
68%
ScarceAbundant
Abundant (68%)
Opportunity Density
Compelling bottom-up investment opportunities remain concentrated in specialized verticals including mid-tier gold producers, domestic infrastructure compounders, and Canadian defence primes. The managers observe robust pipelines in specific sub-sectors even while acknowledging narrow mega-cap leadership in broad market indices.
75%
Short-TermLong-Term
Decade+ (75%)
Time Horizon
The investment thesis is underpinned by generational horizons, emphasizing Canada's multi-decade defence commitment through 2035 and multi-year engineering backlogs stretching through 2027. Near-term volatility in quarterly earnings or integration timelines is tolerated to capture secular compounding.