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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Nixon Capital suffered losses through Q3 2026 driven by a 23% average drop across four of its top five holdings, prompting a total exit from PayPal after its thesis broke down."
Nixon Capital experienced a challenging environment through the first three quarters of 2026, with performance falling well short of internal expectations. Portfolio losses year-to-date were primarily driven by four of the fund's five largest holdings at the start of the year, which suffered an average drawdown of 23% through September. In response to underperformance, the manager has maintained a disciplined capital allocation framework rather than increasing risk exposure or attempting to aggressively swing for rapid recoveries. The macroeconomic backdrop has become increasingly difficult and less accommodative than originally anticipated. Although the domestic consumer has demonstrated resilience despite sentiment hovering near historic lows, substantial headwinds have emerged from a roughly 100-basis-point surge in 10-year Treasury yields alongside a greater than 60% escalation in crude oil prices year-to-date. This sharp shift represents a stark divergence from prior market expectations that had anticipated an oil surplus. From a single-stock perspective, the fund completely exited its long position in PayPal (PYPL) at a realized loss after concluding that the fundamental investment thesis had permanently broken down. In contrast, the manager reaffirmed conviction in its remaining core top holdings, emphasizing that their long-term theses remain fully intact and their contracted multiples present heightened upside potential over a multi-year horizon.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
Growth Outlook
Risk Appetite
Capital Deployment
Forward Guidance
Language Signal
Perceived Risk
Opportunity Density
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