In its 2026 Q3 Letter to Investors, Distillate Capital highlights mounting systemic vulnerabilities created by AI euphoria and rising interest rates while reviewing performance across its investment strategies. Year-to-date through September 30, 2026, the flagship U.S. FSV strategy returned 9.39% net of fees, lagging the S&P 500 (+12.73%) and Russell 1000 Value (+19.23%). Since its May 2017 inception, U.S. FSV has generated an annualized net return of 13.95%, outperforming the Russell 1000 Value by 2.82% annualized with an upside capture of 106.6% and downside capture of 95.2%. Across other strategies, U.S. SMID Quality & Value returned 18.46% YTD (vs. 13.87% for Russell 2000), Long/Short Equity returned 20.92% (vs. 12.73% for S&P 500), U.S. Free Cash Flow 500 returned 15.83%, and International FSV returned 8.57% (vs. 13.85% for MSCI ACWI ex-US).
The commentary delivers a rigorous macro critique of market structure. Over the past three years, the Russell 1000 gained $32 trillion in market capitalization against only $400 billion in incremental NTM free cash flow. Hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, SpaceX) saw cumulative FCF collapse by roughly $450 billion due to soaring capex, while supplier profits (such as NVIDIA) merely recycled hyperscaler spending in a dynamic reminiscent of 1990s vendor financing. The market value of the S&P 500 relative to U.S. GDP ('Buffett Indicator') and global GDP has breached historical records, while 3-year market cap gains exceeded GDP gains by over 6x. Simultaneously, rising global bond yields pose an asymmetric threat to equity multiples that have historically moved in lockstep with fixed-income yields but recently decoupled.
Portfolio positioning remains resolutely anchored in fundamental value and quality. During the recent quarterly rebalance, U.S. FSV initiated new positions in Lowe's Companies (1.4%), AppLovin (1.3%), and PACCAR (1.0%), while adding to UnitedHealth Group, Deckers Outdoor, and Booking Holdings. The strategy exited Abbott Laboratories (-1.3%), Workday (-1.2%), and Global Payments (-1.2%), while trimming Salesforce, Accenture, and Merck. Sector exposures reflect significant overweights to Health Care (22.5% vs. 9.3% in S&P 500) and Industrials (19.7% vs. 8.0%), and a marked underweight to Information Technology (17.6% vs. 39.7%), holding zero direct exposure to the mega-cap hyperscalers and Apple. The resulting portfolio exhibits an 8.0% FCF yield, 0.84 cash flow stability score, and zero exposure to unprofitable, cash-burning enterprises, positioning the strategy for resilience in an increasingly volatile, rate-sensitive market environment.