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Fund Returns
YTD+12%
Annualized+16%
Positioning StanceCONSTRUCTIVE
Market CapMicroCap
GeographyUS, Europe, Other
Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"Constructive on idiosyncratic micro-cap and small-cap opportunities, adding high-conviction positions in Bank7 and McDermott International while capitalizing on corporate rights offerings and aggressive buybacks."
Executive Summary
Alluvial Fund generated a positive return in the third quarter of 2026, delivering +12.0% net of fees year-to-date through September 30, 2026, outperforming broad market benchmarks during a turbulent quarter where equity indices fell roughly 7%. Since its inception on January 1, 2017, the partnership has achieved a net annualized compound return of 16.0% (323.6% cumulative net), meaningfully exceeding the Russell MicroCap Index's 9.6% annualized return. Portfolio allocation remains highly concentrated across special situations and value-oriented micro-cap and small-cap equities, led by the United States (59.8%) and the United Kingdom (27.2%), with Communications (26.8%) and Financials (15.3%) constituting the largest sector weightings.
The investment landscape was characterized by an unwinding of market enthusiasm surrounding the AI, data center, and semiconductor complex, coupled with persistent macroeconomic strains including decade-high U.S. bond yields, historically elevated diesel fuel costs exceeding $6, and heightened geopolitical instability. Amid this uncertain environment, capital rotated toward cash-generative, defensive businesses insulated from cyclical downturns. The manager capitalizes on non-correlated corporate catalysts—including balance sheet recapitalizations, rights offerings, accretive acquisitions, and aggressive capital return programs—that create fundamental intrinsic value regardless of prevailing macroeconomic sentiment.
Key portfolio actions during the quarter centered on corporate restructurings and distressed-to-value transitions. The fund participated in a $500 million rights offering for McDermott International, elevating the position to the second-largest holding at 8.8%. It established a notable new stake in Bank7 Corp. following its opportunistic acquisition of Century Financial Services through a court-sanctioned receivership auction, while ContextLogic funded an accretive acquisition via a rights offering to accelerate net operating loss tax asset utilization. These additions were funded in part by exiting NewPrinces SpA due to integration risk, alongside harvesting tax losses in Vistance Networks and Sylvamo.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Signal Matrix
Market Conviction
85%
CautiousHigh
High Conviction (85%)
Portfolio concentration is high, with the top 10 positions representing 59.3% of assets and the top holding, Zegona, alone making up 15.1%. The manager committed capital directly to rights offerings in McDermott and ContextLogic, took concentrated stakes through expert markets, and added personal capital to the strategy.
Growth Outlook
45%
BearishBullish
Neutral (45%)
The manager cites multiple macro worries including deflating AI trades, cloudy growth, multi-decade high bond yields, and $6 diesel fuel. While cautious on broad equities, this is balanced by constructive views on idiosyncratic cash-flow generators.
Risk Appetite
70%
DefensiveAggressive
Balanced (70%)
Capital remains fully invested in small and micro-cap special situations, including illiquid OTC expert market securities and rights offerings with 1-year lockups. There is no evidence of defensive cash hoarding or macro hedging.
Capital Deployment
75%
De-riskingDeploying
Deploying (75%)
Capital is actively deployed into new opportunities like Bank7, rights offerings in McDermott and ContextLogic, while low-performing positions were harvested for tax losses.
Forward Guidance
75%
CautiousExpansionary
Expansionary (75%)
The manager is actively participating in corporate financings, establishing new holdings such as Bank7, and recycling capital from tax-loss harvesting into fresh high-conviction ideas.
Language Signal
65%
BearishBullish
Bullish (65%)
Discussion of company-specific holdings is replete with positive expressions such as 'wonderful bargains', 'compelling use of capital', and 'rock bottom valuation', though tempered by broader macro warnings.
Perceived Risk
65%
Low RiskElevated
Elevated Risk (65%)
The letter identifies tangible macro risks including historically high bond yields, geopolitical conflict, input inflation, and the ongoing unwind of the broader tech/AI bubble.
Opportunity Density
75%
ScarceAbundant
Abundant (75%)
The manager explicitly emphasizes seeing 'numerous opportunities in the markets where we like to go searching for value', pointing to fruitful corporate M&A screens and underfollowed recapitalizations.
Time Horizon
70%
Short-TermLong-Term
Decade+ (70%)
Investment theses are framed around multi-year operational goals, such as McDermott's 2028 EBITDA objectives and Bank7's 12-18 month integration runway, looking beyond short-term volatility.