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"Hoisington projects upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields as M2 money growth running at double the non-inflationary benchmark collides with large federal deficits, declining domestic savings, and structural demographic constraints."
Hoisington Investment Management Company's Third Quarter 2026 review presents a macroeconomic analysis of money growth, inflation dynamics, and fixed-income fundamentals without disclosing specific portfolio net returns, fee-based performance metrics, or explicit cash balance figures for the period. The managers argue that the United States has transitioned into a post-disinflationary regime marked by a persistent domestic capital shortage. This transition is exacerbated by severe structural impediments to growth, including demographic contraction, sluggish labor-force expansion, and an aggregate economic structure that limits broad productivity gains from artificial intelligence and automation. The core macroeconomic framework highlights Money's Non-Inflationary Benchmark (MNIB), which Hoisington calculates at 2.75% to 3.25% based on potential real GDP growth of roughly 2.0%, the Federal Reserve's 2.0% inflation target, and an upward trend in money velocity. With recent annualized M2 growth accelerating to 6.5%—approximately double the non-inflationary benchmark—nominal spending threatens to persistently outstrip productive capacity. Meanwhile, structural deglobalization, fragmented supply chains, and ballooning federal budget deficits approaching 6.0% of GDP continue to erode net national savings and exert upward pressure on equilibrium real interest rates. From a market and portfolio perspective, the review discusses broad asset-class implications rather than discrete single-stock or corporate equity selections. The combination of monetary expansion above benchmark, deteriorating national savings, heavy sovereign debt issuance, and elevated foreign sovereign bond yields points to sustained upward pressure on long-term Treasury bond yields (maturities exceeding 20 years). The managers conclude that price stability will not occur through passive mean reversion alone, warning that term premiums and long yields will remain elevated until money growth decelerates toward non-inflationary levels.
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