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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Geopolitical oil shocks and spiking bond yields are penalizing rate-sensitive sectors beneath calm headline indices. Preserving capital requires net short positions in disruption-prone software while waiting for memory leaders like SK Hynix to drop into buying territory."
The strategy navigated severe rotational volatility during the third quarter of 2026, benchmarked against broad market proxies including SPY, QQQ, and ARKK. While tactical shorts in high-multiple software and selected AI names generated positive attribution, long positions in rate-sensitive equities and cyclical industries suffered from sharp bond market and commodity headwinds. The portfolio experienced an adverse drawdown through the quarter-end that broadened into October as equity market dispersion accelerated. The macroeconomic environment was characterized by intense internal turbulence masked by subdued headline index volatility. Geopolitical blockades in the Strait of Hormuz drove crude oil toward $100 per barrel, sparking inflationary pressures and an unexpected Federal Reserve rate hike that precipitated a steep bond market rout. Meanwhile, the semiconductor complex reached a cyclical and technical peak following mid-year turmoil, while speculative excess rotated into extreme valuations across cybersecurity software and speculative biotechnology. Portfolio activity centered on selective capital preservation and trimming unconvincing dip purchases across residential construction and European homebuilders at a loss. The manager maintained a net short posture across richly valued software incumbents vulnerable to generative AI substitution, while monitoring regional banking opportunities in the United States and Europe. Within hardware, capital remains on the sidelines waiting for valuation resets in top-tier memory producers like SK Hynix.
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