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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Accelerating scarcity in physical manufacturing capacity and aircraft engines is replacing asset-light software economics with high-return capital productivity, creating multi-year duration for industrial and semiconductor leaders."
The Antero Peak Strategy declined 4.63% net of fees in the third quarter of 2026, trailing the S&P 500 Index return of 2.30%. Year to date, the strategy has gained 11.13% net of fees compared to 12.75% for the benchmark, following an exceptionally strong second quarter when the portfolio advanced 21.60% net. Underperformance in the quarter was primarily driven by short-term macroeconomic, geopolitical, and inflation uncertainty that weighed on aerospace holdings, compute infrastructure investments, and artificial intelligence-related businesses, creating an unusual divergence where individual stock prices decoupled from robust positive earnings revisions. From a macroeconomic perspective, the strategy maintains lower dependence on the equity market's largest mega-cap constituents, preserving an R-squared of 0.66 relative to the S&P 500 Top 20 Index as passive benchmark concentration reached record levels. The investment team's framework highlights a structural shift from the prior asset-light corporate regime toward capital productivity, driven by cumulative multi-trillion-dollar domestic manufacturing shortfalls, severe physical capacity scarcity across aerospace and semiconductors, and massive hyperscaler cloud capital expenditures. In this evolving regime, long-lived physical assets and specialized productive capacity create multi-year competitive duration that software and purely asset-light models struggle to replicate. Portfolio activity and holdings remain anchored in businesses demonstrating accelerating cash flow return on investment and upward earnings revisions across semiconductors, aerospace, and critical infrastructure. The fund's largest disclosed positions include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd at 13.0% of net assets, NVIDIA Corp at 8.3%, Motorola Solutions Inc at 5.2%, The Williams Cos Inc at 4.7%, and The Bank of New York Mellon Corp at 4.5%. Across these holdings, weighted average consensus 2026 earnings estimates rose 6.3% during the quarter, reinforcing the team's conviction that corporate earnings power and economic returns will ultimately reassert themselves over transient factor volatility.
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