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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Accelerating artificial intelligence power demand and supply-chain nearshoring are driving a multi-year industrial re-acceleration, offsetting elevated inflation and bond yield pressures. Resilient order books for power infrastructure provide durable growth across capital goods."
Balanced multi-asset portfolios recorded modest positive gains through the third quarter, navigating a complex environment characterized by bond market weakness and equity resilience. While rising inflation and shifting interest rate expectations exerted upward pressure on global sovereign yields and led to capital losses in medium- and long-duration fixed income, global equity markets hovered near all-time highs on the back of resilient corporate earnings. In addition, US dollar strength provided an incremental performance tailwind for sterling-denominated investment portfolios. Macroeconomic conditions remain dominated by escalating geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing war involving Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which have disrupted hydrocarbon markets and sent crude oil to $100 per barrel. Higher energy costs have reversed previous disinflationary progress, pushing headline inflation forecasts higher and prompting major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, to continue monetary tightening cycles. Concurrently, expanding sovereign fiscal deficits and political friction surrounding the US midterm elections have contributed to benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields reaching 5%. Equity opportunities are anchored by structural capex drivers within the industrial and power infrastructure sectors rather than pure short-cycle manufacturing recoveries. The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centres has precipitated acute power bottlenecks, benefiting equipment manufacturers and electrification specialists such as Schneider Electric, GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Caterpillar. Similarly, expanding semiconductor fabrication and supply chain re-localization provide sustainable backlogs for precision industrial leaders like Atlas Copco despite broader macro uncertainty.
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