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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Markets rallied 15% in Q2 recovering Iran war losses as peace framework reversed energy shock. New Fed Chair Warsh surprised with hawkish pivot eliminating forward guidance and signaling possible rate hikes."
Equity markets rallied sharply in Q2 2026 with S&P 500 up 15.2% and year-to-date returns reaching 10.2%, recovering first quarter losses driven by Iran conflict energy shock. Market performance broadened meaningfully beyond AI-focused large-cap growth, with Russell 2000 surging 21.6% and MSCI Emerging Markets up 24.1% in the quarter. Kevin Warsh's debut as Fed Chair delivered hawkish surprise with dot plot signaling possible rate hikes by year-end and elimination of forward guidance, reversing market expectations from two cuts to potential hikes. Technology sector rallied 31.8% on strong earnings while Energy dropped 13.5% as crude retreated following June peace framework and Strait of Hormuz reopening. Bond investors faced difficult quarter as 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.47%, though higher starting yields now provide meaningful income opportunity. Portfolio implications emphasize diversification away from Magnificent Seven concentration into small-caps, international equities and emerging markets while capturing elevated fixed income yields. Structural case for emerging markets strengthened by dollar weakness and AI supply-chain exposure through Taiwan and South Korea. Private markets continue capturing larger share of value creation as companies stay private longer.
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