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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Fawkes Capital Management 2026 Q1 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

Back to Fund Profile (Fawkes Capital Management)

Primary Source Intelligence • Q1 2026 Letter Analysis

Fawkes Capital Management Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Fawkes Capital Management. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

QTD+27%

YTD+27%

Annualized+16.4%

Positioning StanceNEUTRAL

GeographyGlobal

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"AI developments accelerate with supply chain shortages creating opportunities. Tension exists between geopolitical risks and AI growth conviction."

Executive Summary

Fund gained 13.1% in March through macro-first positioning on Iran conflict with oil exposure and equity hedges. AI developments accelerate with supply chain shortages creating opportunities. Tension exists between geopolitical risks and AI growth conviction. Fund maintains balanced approach, prepared for significant adjustments as Iran situation evolves.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

72%

CautiousHigh

High Conviction (72%)

Manager demonstrates high conviction through significant oil positioning ahead of conflict and named investment in LPKF Laser & Electronics. Clear thesis on AI supply chain opportunities with specific technical analysis. Concentrated positions with explicit sizing language and willingness to make major adjustments.

Growth Outlook

38%

BearishBullish

Neutral (38%)

Manager acknowledges challenging conditions ahead with Iran conflict creating uncertainty. Multiple risk scenarios discussed but balanced by AI opportunities. Cautious tone about market environment until greater clarity emerges.

Risk Appetite

40%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (40%)

Fund maintains significant positions in both oil and AI supply chain while using equity hedges. Positioned for opportunities but with risk management through hedging strategies. Balanced approach between conviction and caution.

Capital Deployment

De-riskingDeploying

De-risking (5%)

No explicit cash level changes discussed. Manager describes maintaining current positioning while monitoring for adjustment opportunities. Recent oil position was established in February, not current period. Neutral deployment stance.

Forward Guidance

10%

CautiousExpansionary

Cautious (10%)

Manager states willingness to make significant portfolio adjustments as warranted but emphasizes monitoring and waiting for clarity. Prepared to act but not actively deploying new capital currently.

Language Signal

15%

BearishBullish

Bearish (15%)

Language balances opportunity identification in AI with risk acknowledgment around geopolitics. More risk-focused language around Iran conflict scenarios but constructive on AI developments. Slightly positive net balance.

Perceived Risk

75%

Low RiskElevated

Elevated Risk (75%)

Significant discussion of Iran conflict risks with multiple negative scenarios detailed. Manager explicitly notes potential for stagflationary recession and systemic market impacts. Geopolitical risks receive substantial analysis throughout the letter.

Opportunity Density

65%

ScarceAbundant

Abundant (65%)

Manager identifies specific opportunities in AI supply chain with detailed technical analysis and named positions. Oil positioning also represents identified opportunity. Selective but meaningful opportunity set described despite challenging environment.

Time Horizon

70%

Short-TermLong-Term

Decade+ (70%)

AI supply chain thesis described as multi-year opportunity with rising demand over next several years. Technical chip packaging evolution represents longer-term structural shift. Some near-term catalyst dependency around Iran conflict resolution but core thesis is medium-term.