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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Glenmede expects 2.7% U.S. GDP growth in 2026 as fiscal stimulus and AI productivity gains offset tariff and energy headwinds. Geopolitical tensions drove inflation to 4.2% before easing late quarter."
Glenmede expects U.S. GDP growth of approximately 2.7% in 2026, driven by fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and early AI-driven productivity gains that offset headwinds from tariffs, higher energy prices, and slower job growth. Geopolitical tensions in Iran pushed inflation to 4.2% year-over-year in May before a late-quarter U.S.-Iran agreement eased energy prices. The Federal Reserve held rates steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, though updated projections revealed a hawkish tilt with roughly half of respondents penciling in at least one rate hike by year-end. Equity markets rebounded sharply in Q2, with the S&P 500 climbing roughly 15% to new highs on strong earnings. Market leadership broadened significantly, with emerging markets surging 24% and small caps gaining over 21%. Four developments stand to define the second half: mega IPOs potentially raising $200B+, AI capital spending approaching 2.5% of GDP, new Fed leadership navigating above-target inflation, and midterm elections. Premium equity valuations temper the constructive outlook, though pockets of relative value remain in small cap and international equities.
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