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SOURCE UNAVAILABLE
Fund Returns
QTD+10.51%
YTD+4.38%
Annualized+9.18%
Positioning StanceNEUTRAL
Market CapLarge Cap
GeographyGlobal
Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"Supply constraints drove semiconductor pricing power in Q2 2026, but investors rewarded temporary scarcity over durable competitive advantages. Hyperscalers lagged as extraordinary AI capital spending raised concerns about returns."
Executive Summary
Supply constraints defined the first half of 2026, from oil shortages sparked by the Iran war to the scramble for AI computing capacity. Semiconductor supply has been especially slow to respond, translating into substantial pricing power for memory chipmakers like Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron Technology. However, investors increasingly rewarded companies whose earnings growth reflects temporary industry scarcity rather than durable competitive advantages. Hyperscalers significantly underperformed as investors recognized they will eventually have to pass on extraordinary capital spending costs to customers or accept lower returns on capital. The manager questions whether this cycle is different or represents a bubble, noting that AI as a technology does not need to fail for growth expectations embedded in many companies' valuations to fall short. Rather than forecasting the precise trajectory of AI spending, the portfolio focuses on companies with high barriers to entry, differentiated products, and strong bargaining power—such as NVIDIA, TSMC, and ASML—that can benefit across a wide range of outcomes. The manager maintains exposure to software companies like Adobe, Microsoft, and SAP, believing the market overstates AI's long-term disruptive effects on these established players.
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