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"The AI buildout is the biggest known unknown in 25 years, but this is not the 1999 bubble. Tech profit margins are 2.5x higher at half the P/E."
Lansing Street Advisors' Q2 2026 letter argues that while the AI buildout represents the biggest known unknown in 25 years, the current market environment is not a repeat of the 1999-2000 internet bubble. AI spending now runs near 8% of GDP, exceeding the dot-com peak, with hyperscalers spending 80% of free cash flow on chips and data centers. However, tech sector profit margins are 2.5x higher than 1999 at half the P/E ratio. The manager highlights rolling mini-bubbles that burst without taking down broader indexes, including crypto (MSTR down -77%), small-cap crypto coins (-90% in one day), and China real estate (20 years of gains wiped out). After 15 years of large-cap growth dominance, diversification has worked over the last 12 months, with emerging markets and small caps returning 5x U.S. large-cap growth. Key risks include AI buildout bottlenecks, Chinese price competition, and elevated speculation with record margin debt. The manager advocates for a diversified portfolio, long time horizon, and disciplined positioning through volatility.
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