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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Marcuard Heritage views Q2 2026 as an inflationary boom with resilient nominal growth but persistent inflation risks. The preliminary US-Iran accord reduced Middle East tail risks while AI-driven capex supports technology and semiconductors."
Marcuard Heritage characterizes Q2 2026 as an inflationary boom, with resilient nominal growth, moderate real activity, and persistent inflation risks. Geopolitics remained central as the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption lifted energy and inflation premia before a preliminary US-Iran accord reduced tail risks. The US economy maintained an inflationary expansion with firm labour markets and renewed price pressure, keeping the Fed in higher-for-longer mode. Europe weakened into stagflation as PMIs contracted and inflation reaccelerated, prompting an ECB insurance hike. China remained bifurcated with fragile domestic demand but resilient exports driven by AI components and semiconductors. Markets advanced led by US technology, semiconductors, and AI beneficiaries, while Europe, China, bonds, and broader cyclicals lagged. The firm emphasizes capital preservation and active rotation, favoring short-duration high yield and senior secured loans for resilient carry. In equities, elevated valuations argue against broad beta, while rising dispersion strengthens the case for Liquid Alternatives. Stagflation, not recession, remains the central downside risk.
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