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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Markets delivered a 15% Q2 rally to record highs as Middle East ceasefire hopes collapsed oil prices and broadened participation beyond mega-cap tech. Small caps surged 22.6% year-to-date, value trounced growth, and emerging markets led globally on semiconductor strength."
Q2 2026 saw equity markets stage a powerful rally despite challenging fundamentals, with the S&P 500 gaining 15.2% and reaching record highs in early June. Following Q1's 5% decline driven by Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure fears, markets reversed sharply as a ceasefire framework emerged and oil prices collapsed 26% in May. The quarter was notable for broadening market participation, challenging the narrative of narrow mega-cap tech dominance. Small caps surged 22.6% year-to-date, value outperformed growth by nearly 5% in June, and emerging markets led globally with a 24% quarterly gain driven by semiconductor demand in Korea and Taiwan. Fixed income remained range-bound as the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, disappointing doves. Despite the rally, significant uncertainties persist around inflation at three-year highs, unresolved geopolitical tensions, and interest rate direction. The forward-looking market has wagered on continued earnings growth and fading energy shocks, though this bet remains unproven with Strait of Hormuz traffic not fully recovered.
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