Pitch Categories: Podcasts

AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime | Allocator | Ep.32

  • Macro Regime Shift: The guest emphasizes a transition to a sticky and spiky inflation regime driven by supply shocks, geopolitical fragmentation, and demographics, implying steeper yield curves and higher term premia.
  • AI: He highlights an AI-led investment boom (data centers, software, IT) boosting growth near term and potentially adding cyclical inflation before productivity gains deliver disinflationary benefits.
  • Information Technology: Tech spending is a key growth engine, with concerns about index concentration and valuation balanced by prospects for a broader equity market participation beyond the U.S.
  • Emerging Markets: High-conviction view with improving macro reforms, lower-than-expected volatility, and potential decoupling; EM currencies appear materially undervalued and benefit from a weaker dollar.
  • China: Constructive outlook with resilient growth, gradual exit from deflation, and targeted policy support via the new five-year plan focused on advanced manufacturing, tech innovation, and consumption rebalancing.
  • US Dollar Weakness: A modest multi-year dollar decline is expected, supported by policy alignment and global growth broadening, aiding EM assets though the dollar’s traditional risk-off behavior may be less reliable.
  • Hedge Funds: Favored as diversifiers in this new regime, with macro and multi-strategy funds expected to contribute more meaningfully to portfolio resilience versus the 2010s.
  • Gold: A preferred allocation as a debasement hedge and diversifier amid shifting stock-bond correlations, supported by central bank buying and fiscal/inflation concerns; no specific tickers were recommended.

The Death of DOGE and the Triumph of the Establishment: A Review of 2025

  • DOGE Failure: The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) overpromised and underdelivered despite Elon Musk’s involvement, yielding only marginal savings versus the touted $1T. The collapse is framed as a microcosm of Washington’s structural resistance to reform.
  • Spending & Inflation: Public support for “cuts” evaporates when specific programs are named, leaving deficits and inflation entrenched. Tariffs boosted tax receipts largely from Americans, not foreigners, underscoring inefficiency and higher consumer costs.
  • Co-option Strategy: MAGA rhetoric is used to sell status quo policies, especially in foreign affairs. The administration talks “America First” while broadly sustaining establishment priorities.
  • Foreign Policy Continuity: Limited movement on Ukraine peace contrasts with escalations and focus shifts to the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia. Record arms sales to Taiwan and broader security-state spending persist.
  • Neoconism with Trump Characteristics: NATO is de-emphasized in favor of other theaters, but overall interventionism and defense outlays remain intact. The rhetoric changes, the policy substance largely does not.
  • Personnel vs. Policy: Even with some non-traditional appointees, outcomes resemble prior Republican administrations. DOJ/FBI conduct and episodes like the Epstein case reflect continuity over change.
  • Right-Wing Fractures: A split between MAGA principles and Trump loyalists intensifies, with figures like Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene challenging the White House. Complacency among some supporters reduces pressure for substantive reform.
  • Structural Limits: Elections are portrayed as insufficient to reverse long-term decline; decentralization and even secession are floated as more viable paths. Expectations reset toward potential personnel shifts in year two rather than sweeping policy change.

David Rosenberg: "The Business Cycle Is Dead"—The Story Investors Today Believe

  • Market Outlook: The guest sees a highly uneven, K-shaped economy driven by AI capex and top-10% wealth effects, with broad weakness beneath the surface. He expects labor market cracks to widen and is skeptical of the consensus no-recession view.
  • US Treasuries: Bullish on the 10-year and mid-curve, expecting sizable Fed cuts and potential 10% total returns if yields move toward ~3.25-3.5%. He prefers duration in the belly over the long bond due to fiscal/tariff uncertainty premia at the long end.
  • Valuations & AI Leaders: He argues the equity risk premium is near zero and large-cap tech is a classic price bubble with air coming out. Specific names cited include Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle (ORCL), and Palantir (PLTR) as examples of stretched AI-related valuations.
  • Sector Positioning: Prefers defensive, cash-flow visible areas like Utilities and Consumer Staples, which are screening well. He also highlights interest in global healthcare, aerospace & defense, and energy infrastructure, while avoiding broad index exposure.
  • Regional Opportunities: Positive on select non-U.S. markets, notably China given very low valuations that price in severe pessimism. Canada is viewed as a value/ hard-asset torque with improving terms of trade and policy clarity, and he favors Canadian pipelines.
  • Gold: The stance has shifted from “love” to “like,” with profits taken in miners and bullion after strong gains. Still constructive but less emphatic than before.
  • Risks & Fed Path: He expects slower growth, rising unemployment, and disinflation, pushing the Fed to cut more than consensus. A steeper curve favors financials, but broad equities face valuation headwinds and narrow leadership concentration.

Edward Sterck: Platinum in "Deep Deficit" Again, Will Price Keep Rising in 2026?

  • Platinum Market: Three consecutive annual deficits and elevated lease rates signal tight physical markets, with 2025’s deficit estimated at 692k oz and tightness persisting despite a sharp price rally.
  • 2026 Outlook Nuance: A headline surplus of ~20k oz hinges on ETF profit-taking and CME inventory outflows; absent these, the market reverts to a sizable deficit near 400k oz and above-ground stocks remain depleted.
  • China: Strong bar/coin demand has made China the largest platinum investment market, jewelry demand is rising as a lower-cost alternative to gold, and the new Guangzhou futures exchange enhances domestic participation and price discovery.
  • Platinum ETFs: Holdings were broadly unchanged in 2025 despite price strength; 2026 projections assume ~170k oz of profit-taking that is uncertain and price-dependent, making ETF flows a key swing factor.
  • Supply Dynamics: Deep-level PGM mines are inflexible and require multi-year price strength for expansion, while recycling should grow but remains constrained by end-of-life vehicle availability and financing.
  • Auto & Industrial Demand: Auto demand remains higher for longer amid slow electrification and some platinum–palladium substitution; industrial demand is set to step up with new glass, chemicals, and refining projects.
  • Trade Tensions: US Section 232 on critical minerals and a separate palladium anti-dumping case could introduce tariffs/quotas, with outcomes influencing CME stock releases and substitution dynamics.
  • No Specific Tickers: No individual public companies or ETFs were named; the discussion focused on platinum, the Materials sector, and Precious Metals & Minerals miners’ supply constraints.

Outlook 2026: Mike McGlone on Bitcoin's $10k Risk, Gold Volatility & The ‘Great Reversion’

  • Market Divergence: The guest highlights a stark split between record-high US equities and collapsing commodity prices, signaling a deflationary setup into 2026.
  • US Treasuries: He explicitly pitches long Treasuries as the next big trade, expecting the 10-year yield to fall toward or below 3% amid easing and a risk-asset drawdown.
  • Gold: Bullish long-term versus equities with the S&P-to-gold ratio at historical inflection levels, but warns of near-term volatility and advocates profit-taking after a parabolic move.
  • Energy: Crude oil is expected to stay under pressure with potential lows near $40, while natural gas likely revisits ~$2 on post-inflation deflation dynamics.
  • Industrial Metals: Copper is vulnerable to a 30-40% drop if US equities correct ~20%, and silver behaves increasingly like an industrial metal with high volatility.
  • Cryptocurrencies: The guest warns of a deep mean reversion in Bitcoin, citing speculative excess and supply proliferation, with potential declines toward $50k and even $10k.
  • US Equities & Volatility: He expects a third down year since 2008, with S&P volatility reverting from unusually low levels and a 10-20% decline risking broader deflationary feedback loops.
  • China & Global Demand: Persistent deflationary signals from China (e.g., low bond yields) and weaker global manufacturing weigh on commodities, reinforcing caution on industrial metals.

Is NICKEL Next to Go Parabolic? The Metal Nobody’s Watching (Yet)

Description: Chris Showalter, CEO of Lifezone Metals (NYSE: LZM) thinks we could be on the cusp of a breakout in the nickel market, as the … Transcript: Hello everybody. Welcome into commodity culture where our goal is to make you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day. Before we dive […]

Trade of The Week – MacroVoices #511

Description: Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook : https://bit.ly/492eOqi ✓Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: … Transcript: This is Macrovoices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, [music] high- netw worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macrovoices [music] is all about the brightest minds in the world of […]

DGXX Set to 5X? | One-on-One with CEO Michel Amar

Description: Sign up for weekly trade recommendations: https://curzio.me/lp-wsup AI infrastructure is heating up… and DigiPower X (DGXX) is … Transcript: have a great interview lined up for you today with Michelle Omar, CEO of Digip Power X. It’s a stock most of you should be familiar with because I had Michelle on this podcast. I […]

AI Capex, NFLX/WBD Deal, and the FISV/LRN Meltdown

Description: 00:00 Intro 00:50 Berkshire buying $GOOGL: AI revenue 06:35 Mag7 heavy capex 12:30 Circular nature of AI 16:27 Thoughts on … Transcript: Welcome, welcome, welcome. How’s everybody doing? Hope you are doing well. My name is Andrew with Focus Compounding on Air Live with Jeff Ganon. Jeff, how’s it going today? >> Going really […]

One Million Dollars Today or $1,000 Per Week Forever? | WAYT?

Description: Join Downtown Josh Brown (CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management) and Michael Batnick (Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth … Transcript: [music] Okay. Can everyone hear and see me? Raise your hands. All right. So, one person. All right. Wi-Fi issues today in multiple locations. Not my favorite day of the year, but it’s 5:00 Eastern and we […]

Netflix vs. Paramount | Animal Spirits 442

Description: On episode 442 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: huge losses in the Nasdaq 100, 2026 outlooks, … Transcript: Today’s show is sponsored by Neos Investments. Markets remain unpredictable, rate expectations keep shifting, equity volatility persists, and questions around tariffs and the AI trade continue to drive uncertainty as investors consider […]

Surviving The Bubble Pop With Gold, Silver & Platinum | Dave Collum

Description: Dave Collum joins us to explain why he believes today’s markets are dangerously overvalued and built on unsustainable … Transcript: Hello and welcome back to Sore Financially, a channel where we discuss the macro to understand the micro. I’ve invited a phenomenal guest today. Croc describes him as a sharp nononsense voice on finance. […]

Mining Private Equity Unmasked (Fraser Perry)

Description: Today we’re going deep into the world of mining private equity, with Fraser Perry. If those words don’t mean an awful lot to you, … Transcript: If it can be built and ramped up, yeah, everyone can get paid. It’s great. You have your capex blowout. Management team can’t deliver. You don’t get the […]

Interest Is Not the Marginal Product of Capital

Description: Bob revisits capital and interest theory to show why the textbook result “interest = MPK” only holds in a one-good world, and why … Transcript: This is the Human Action podcast where we debunk the economic, political, and even cultural myths of the days. Here’s your host, Dr. Bob Murphy. Hey everybody, welcome back […]

Santiago Roel Santos: Blockchain Is the Next Internet-Scale Shift for Every Single Business

Description: Wondering how long-term tech shifts like blockchain fit into your portfolio? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion’s endorsed … Transcript: Every business is going to use this technology over the next 25 years. Like full stop. Every business interacts with the financial services system. That is going to be a huge transformation. It’s […]

Ben Finegold: Uranium in 2026 — Price Outlook, Plus Stocks, Supply and Demand

Description: Ben Finegold of Ocean Wall shares his 2026 outlook for uranium supply, demand and prices. In his view, although 2025 brought … Transcript: I’m Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Ben Fineold, head of research at Ocean Wall. Thank you so much for being here. Always great to catch up […]

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