Pitch Categories: Podcasts

Jacob Shapiro: "Sell America" Is Real—Canada Breaks Away, NATO at Risk & the Shift to Multipolarity

• Multipolar World: Canada’s strategic reset with China and Qatar signals a shift away from exclusive U.S. alignment and toward diversified partnerships.
• Sell America: A gradual rotation out of U.S. Treasuries into alternatives like Swiss franc, Singapore dollar, gold, and crypto is underway, changing safe-haven dynamics.
• Market Outlook: Elevated volatility stems from policy uncertainty, tariff unpredictability, and perceived Fed politicization, weighing on capex and planning.
• Europe Opportunity: A push toward strategic autonomy and defense spending, alongside improving energy supply via LNG, renewables, and potential nuclear, presents upside.
• Energy Security: Countries with secure, cheap energy and strong R&D are poised to benefit, especially as infrastructure is rebuilt and export routes diversify.
• Japan: Despite long-term challenges, a potential snap election and policy shift could catalyze rapid, “explosive” change, making Japan a contrarian bullish case.
• Risks: A U.S. troop move on Greenland could fracture NATO, accelerating European geopolitical realignment and impacting transatlantic markets.
• Portfolio Implications: Consider diversification away from concentrated U.S. exposure and toward resilient regions and assets aligned with the multipolar trend.

Why Tariffs Lead To DEFLATION: Wall St Veteran's RECESSION Warning | Jared Dillian

• Bond Bullishness: Guest is strongly bullish on US Treasuries, expecting multiple rate cuts and significant upside along the curve.
• Deflation Outlook: Argues tariffs are deflationary, citing falling “true inflation” and the likelihood that rate cuts come late.
• Weak Dollar: Expects a weak dollar scenario akin to the Plaza Accord pattern, improving the trade deficit while impacting asset allocation.
• Recession Risk: Sees higher odds of a US recession, with unemployment potentially rising to 6–8% due to government and private-sector layoffs.
• Housing/Homebuilders: Notes weakening housing trends with homebuilders cutting prices, high inventories, and potential pressure as mortgage rates fall.
• Energy/Oil: Discusses oil producers with a technically constructive base but macro downside risk if recession deepens; OPEC+ supply adds pressure.
• Portfolio Strategy: Recommends diversification, hedging with puts, holding cash for opportunities, and tactical rotation (e.g., Staples), rather than selling out.

Powell's Dangerous Trap: Why Rate Cuts Could Crash Markets | Danielle DiMartino Booth

• Disinflation: The guest argues market-based inflation measures and new-tenant rent data show rapid disinflation, with shelter pressures easing due to multifamily supply.
• Labor Market: Wage growth for job switchers and stayers has normalized, workweeks are historically short, and layoffs are rising, signaling broader labor weakness.
• Consumer Spending: Real spending declined with services flat, indicating demand softness that undercuts the sticky-inflation narrative.
• Autos: An 84-day supply of new cars, falling recovery rates, and record auto delinquencies highlight Auto Credit Stress and affordability issues.
• Lodging: Hotel rates are falling, Vegas is reportedly quiet, and leisure/hospitality jobs are slipping, pointing to a Lodging Slowdown.
• Retail: 2025 is seeing multi-billion-dollar bankruptcies and surging retail closures, worsening the adverse feedback loop.
• Fed Policy: The guest expects imminent Fed Rate Cuts but warns of a trap as older investors reliant on interest income could sell equities, testing passive flows.
• Macro Outlook: The overall stance is defensive, emphasizing that investors should “trade the narrative but own the truth” amid recession risks.

Putin's Failure: Russia Can't Win Against Western Capitalism | Marko Papic

• Ukraine Settlement: A negotiated settlement is viewed as inevitable, leading to a shift in geopolitical risk pricing and market positioning.
• Multipolar World: The global system is already multipolar, and a more balanced version should reduce the need for US assets as a geopolitical safe haven.
• Europe: Bullish on European equities due to improving cohesion, attractive valuations, and reduced risk premia as the conflict winds down.
• LNG Glut: A wave of LNG supply from Qatar, Mozambique, British Columbia, the US, and Russia is set to collapse European gas and electricity costs.
• Oil Markets: Russia is unlikely to add supply post-settlement; removal of discounts could lift blended crude prices, with Middle East risks providing upside.
• Underweight US Equities: Safe-haven flows into US mega-cap tech may unwind in a balanced multipolar environment, favoring global ex-US exposure.
• Rebuild & Risks: Poland may benefit from Ukraine’s reconstruction but indices are bank-heavy; agricultural productivity trends keep softs under pressure.

Ex-Trader Warns: The Great Rotation Out of US Stocks Is On | Jared Dillian

• Market Volatility: Discussion highlights a smooth 10% drawdown with relatively muted VIX, raising concern about complacency and lack of capitulation.
• Risk-Off Rotation: The classic rotation from high-risk tech to staples is underway, exacerbated by the Magnificent Seven’s heavy index weight.
• Style Shift: Potential secular move from large-cap growth to Small Cap Value is flagged as a compelling, longer-term style-box trend.
• Dollar Weakness: A weaker dollar could drive large flows from US assets to International Stocks, with European Equities already outperforming on modest USD declines.
• Portfolio Hedging: Emphasis on long-dated, out-of-the-money puts as insurance due to their Vega sensitivity, versus risky zero-day options.
• Tactical Structures: Risk reversals are presented as a bottom-fishing tool, selling rich puts to fund calls when skew spikes in selloffs.
• Key Mentions: Magnificent Seven leaders like Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) are cited in the drawdown; anecdotes include Eastman Kodak (KODK) and volatility extremes like GameStop (GME).
• Outlook: Elevated policy uncertainty implies higher and more erratic volatility, making options education and prudent hedging timely.

Dr. Mark Thornton Warns 'Fiat Is In The ICU' And Central Banks Do Not Trust Each Other

• Precious Metals: The guest makes a strong bull case for gold and silver amid fiat debasement, central bank distrust, and rising bond yields.
• Silver Inelasticity: Silver’s supply is highly constrained due to its byproduct nature, slow recycling, and environmental policy limits, setting the stage for sharp price moves.
• Gold Accumulation: Central bank buying, highlighted by Poland’s plan to reach 700 tons and gains by Russia, signals a global shift toward physical gold reserves.
• Miners’ Leverage: Preference is shown for gold producers with significant silver credits and strong balance sheets, with earnings expected to drive later outperformance.
• Bond Market Stress: Rising long-term rates in the U.S., Japan, and the U.K. and waning foreign demand for Treasuries underscore risks to financial assets and support hard assets.
• Fertilizers: A rotation toward commodities is emphasized, with potential outperformance for agricultural fertilizers and chemicals relative to equities in 2026.
• Policy Scenarios: Metals could pause only on credible fiscal reform, de-escalation, or a Volcker-like shock; otherwise, policy risks (taxation/confiscation-lite) may further fuel hard asset demand.
• Cycle Signals: The Skyscraper Curse and heavy AI-era capex are cited as late-cycle indicators of malinvestment that typically precede downturns.

TDI Podcast: Private Equity Insights (#956)

• Commercial Real Estate: Guest pitches private CRE across multifamily, self-storage, and mobile home parks with a focus on value-add, cash flow, and operator quality.
• Mobile Home Parks: Emphasis on mom-and-pop-owned communities with below-market rents, operational turnarounds, and stable performance through cycles.
• Self Storage: Discussed as a boring but resilient asset with value-add (expansions, RV/boat storage) and steady cash yields.
• Midwest Multifamily: Bullish on supply-constrained markets like Chicago and Minneapolis driving organic rent growth due to limited new permits.
• Grocery Anchored Retail: Preference for Kroger-anchored neighborhood centers and national tenants; sector resilience with favorable supply-demand and double-digit cash-on-cash in some deals.
• Strategy & Structure: JV hybrid equity with downside protections and control rights; rigorous operator due diligence prioritizing execution, humility, and systems.
• Risks & Lessons: Overleverage and weak operators exposed post-rate hikes; focus on conservative leverage (40–65%) and operational excellence.
• Investor Fit: Accredited, long-term capital only; drawdown model, capital calls, and illiquidity highlighted as key considerations.

Nick Baltas on Trend Following in 2026: Signals, Structure & Strategy | Systematic Investor | Ep.282

• Trend Following: The discussion centers on rules-based trend strategies, noting a strong start to 2026 and continued strength from equities and precious metals.
• Managed Futures: Significant dispersion among CTAs was driven by speed and universe choices; slower speeds and smaller universes outperformed recently but may reverse with regime shifts.
• Risk Dynamics: V-shape reversals and interest-rate whipsaws were key sources of divergence; broad diversification and dynamic allocation are emphasized for resilience.
• Non-Trend Signals: Mean reversion and micro indicators helped in 2025, supporting investor behavior by stabilizing allocations to trend during difficult periods.
• Research Insights: New work on nonlinear time-series momentum (neural networks) and a theory paper on trend’s crisis behavior reinforce tail nonlinearity and defensive convexity.
• Market Approach: The guests stress avoiding prediction and relying on disciplined, price-driven processes over narrative-based forecasts.
• Access Vehicles: Consultants highlight broader access to trend via CTAs, mutual funds, UCITS, ETFs, and QIS, making implementation more flexible.
• Narrative Data: There is exploratory interest in narrative/thematic data as potential early signals, with caution about conditional market impact and noise.

The Great Rotation Has Started: Mag7 to Hard Assets | Larry McDonald

• Regime Shift: The guest highlights a multiyear rotation from U.S. growth/MAG7 into global value and non-U.S. equities, citing sustained outperformance trends.
• Hard Assets: Capital is moving into hard assets amid currency debasement and higher-for-longer rates, with gold, silver, platinum, and copper leading.
• Gold & Silver Miners: Bullish long term but tactically extended; expect high beta volatility and prefer buying pullbacks toward key moving averages due to “tourist” hot money.
• Natural Gas: Strong bullish view on natural gas equities and infrastructure, driven by surging power demand from data centers and potential multi-bagger upside.
• Private Credit Risk: Warns of emerging stress in private credit, especially tied to data center financing, posing risks to banks and financials.
• Financials Outlook: Advises avoiding financials given rich book multiples and questionable AI capex returns at major banks.
• Inflation Path: Expects higher inflation to normalize around 3-4% amid fiscal stimulus and $1.3T data center capex, limiting scope for further Fed cuts.
• Housing & Policy: Notes housing affordability stress and potential Fannie/Freddie support; policy moves and power auctions may pressure mega-cap tech via energy costs.

Former Fed Insider DiMartino Booth: 'Powell Needs to Stop Lying to the American People'

• Market Outlook: The guest argues markets are overreacting to the Fed’s liquidity operations, incorrectly interpreting them as a return to full-blown QE.
• Quantitative Easing: She stresses genuine QE requires the policy rate at the zero bound and warns past balance-sheet expansions created distortions and inequality.
• US Treasuries: Discussion centers on Fed purchases of short-dated Treasuries to maintain market plumbing and longer-term risks to the risk-free status if the balance sheet balloons again.
• Economic Risks: Rising bankruptcies, a squeezed middle class, and high unemployment among recent college graduates highlight mounting structural pressures.
• AI: AI is seen as a disruptive force eliminating entry-level roles and demanding extreme specialization across professions, with long-run labor market implications.
• Policy and Independence: She calls for the FOMC to assert independence, potentially electing its own chair, and advocates narrowing the Fed’s mandate to price stability.
• Opportunities and Speculation: Liquidity injections may push stocks higher short term, but the guest cautions this exacerbates inequality and is not a sustainable policy path.
• Stock Picks: No specific tickers were substantively pitched by the guest; the focus stayed on macro policy and systemic risks.

Chris Whalen: How To Really Reform The Fed

• Federal Reserve & Policy: Extensive discussion on Fed independence, decentralization, and refocusing the mandate toward the soundness of the dollar rather than economic micromanagement.
• Precious Metals: Bullish stance on gold and silver driven by central bank purchases, asymmetric risk-reward, and investor under-allocation, with the guest personally increasing exposure.
• Commercial Real Estate: Ongoing stress in office markets with deep markdowns in major cities, likely repurposing needs, and potential municipal revenue impacts via tax abatements.
• Banks & Credit: Money-center banks’ reported numbers look solid due to accounting changes and forbearance, but underlying CRE exposures and private credit dynamics remain important risks.
• Housing & Rates: Conforming loan limit increases risk fueling further home price inflation; near-term cuts in short rates could re-accelerate housing and set up a later correction.
• Macro Risks: BOJ rate normalization underscores rising global funding costs and latent sovereign debt concerns across major economies.
• Market Outlook: Overall markets appear stable, but the probability of surprise shocks from lesser-known names and background stresses is rising into the new year.

Interest Rates Are EXPLODING Higher!! (What You Need To Know)

• Precious Metals: Bullish stance on gold and silver, with gold viewed as a hedge against rising counterparty risk and silver expected to outperform in percentage terms.
• Gold Drivers: Emphasis that gold’s move is tied more to geopolitical and counterparty risk than to inflation or dollar moves, reinforcing its long-term purchasing power role.
• Silver Momentum: Silver is riding gold’s coattails, showing stronger upside; the speaker initiated a position weeks ago and is holding as the trend strengthens.
• Yield Curve Steepener: Advocates a steepener trade (long 2-year futures, short 10-year futures) to benefit in both bear and bull steepening scenarios, citing historical rate volatility.
• US Equities: Expects the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dip to be short-lived with potential new highs within a week; would fade the sell-off in the near term.
• Rates and Macro: Views the spike in long-end yields as driven by mechanical positioning and shifting growth/inflation expectations rather than debt/deficit fears.
• Dollar and JGBs: Sees “sell America” and DXY weakness as likely transitory, with Japan’s bond moves better explained by nominal GDP shifts than by debt narratives.
• No Single-Stock Pitch: No specific tickers were promoted; focus centered on metals, macro rate positioning, and short-term equity rebound.

Economic Indicators Flash Red: Is Market Chaos Next? | Dana Peterson

• Market Outlook: Broad uncertainty dominates CEO sentiment, with caution around geopolitics, regulation, and policy shaping a wait-and-see stance.
• Federal Reserve: Expectation of 0-2 rate cuts depending on inflation and labor data, while structurally higher Treasury yields raise corporate funding costs.
• Consumer Behavior: Spending remains resilient due to employment, but is shifting to necessities and lower-cost options amid persistent price pressures.
• AI Theme: CEOs view AI as a disruptive but essential tool, prioritizing adoption across supply chains, marketing, and productivity despite challenges measuring ROI.
• Corporate Investment: Firms are maintaining prior plans but hesitant to expand capex; focus is on technology enablement and workforce upskilling rather than aggressive hiring.
• Labor Market: Tight labor conditions persist with ongoing wage growth; shortages in skilled roles drive training and internal capability building.
• Geopolitics/Tariffs: Tariff policy and regional risks (Asia, Middle East, Europe, Latin America) threaten supply chains and sentiment, adding to planning uncertainty.

It's Not Time To Sell…Yet | Milton Berg

• Main Strategy: Guest pitches a binary, rules-based model for individual investors to stay long US equities (S&P 500) until a 7-8% drawdown triggers an exit.
• : When out of equities, the model allocates 100% to Treasury Bills, emphasizing capital preservation and simplicity over a 60/40 mix.
• Institutional Stance: For trading-oriented clients, a VXN-derived signal on Dec 11 indicated a short S&P 500 positioning with strict stop parameters.
• 2026 Outlook: Described as “unusual,” with higher volatility, more frequent corrections, and potential for sharp swings, though not necessarily a full bear market.
• Model Edge: Signals focus on rare breadth/volume extremes at major lows, with a backtested track record since 1957 significantly outperforming buy-and-hold.
• Implementation: Retail investors are advised to use broad S&P 500 exposure (preferably low-cost ETFs) and avoid sector bets or leverage.
• Sector/Asset Views: Caution on precious metals (late-cycle, reversal risk) and acknowledgment of Bitcoin’s bear trend, while equity positioning remains data-driven.
• Risk Management: Clear rules—100% in or out—reduce decision fatigue; alerts are infrequent (roughly one trade every 1.25 years) but decisive.

U.S. Debt Wall, War Risk & The Market Reckoning: Steven Feldman’s 2026 Outlook

Description: Read Steven Feldman’s full 2026 Outlook for a deeper look at the risks and realities that will shape investing, macro, markets, and … Transcript: We’ve been living in a world of lots of narratives and those narratives are treasuries are risk-f free and the Fed will come to uh the rescue of the markets […]

Brett Rentmeester: 2026 Is a Make-or-Break Year for Markets—The AI Arms Race & Fourth Turning Moment

Description: When systems are stressed, portfolios get tested. Get a free review from Brett Rentmeester and the Windrock team here: … Transcript: We’re at a crisis kind of moment where old systems are failing, met with record debt and in kind of the realities that we can’t just keep spending money and printing money out […]

Welcome to the Crack Up Boom?

Description: Join the discussion at Peak Prosperity: https://peak.fan/yc3uk9wh Contact Peak Financial Investing at https://peak.fan/mrydhd3v … Transcript: Nothing in this program should be considered investment advice. It is for educational purposes only. Please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full. The data doesn’t look good under the surface, but yet you look at the markets, […]

Fiscal & Monetary Madness To Blow Up Bonds, Stocks & Housing In 2026? | Michael Pento

Description: WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money’s endorsed financial … Transcript: If we don’t have a recession, if we don’t have a credit crisis, we are going to have a blow up in the bond market just because we have so much fiscal and monetary madness going to happen […]

The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead Because Bonds No Longer Work | Louis Gave

Description: WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money’s endorsed financial … Transcript: In the old days, you know, the the ultimate portfolio was 60 equity, 40 bonds, you know, you rebalanced every quarter and you go to the beach and that delivered tremendous returns. That portfolio died with COVID. That […]

Will 2026 Be The Year The Stock Bubble Bursts? | Kevin Muir

Description: WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money’s endorsed financial … Transcript: Is it an AI bubble? 100%. And like anybody that tells you that when the world’s largest stock trades at 33 times sales, not earnings, sales. Okay, this is the world’s largest stock and it’s basically just an […]